Predictive Validity Assessment with a Mixed SP/RP Panel Applied to Information Processing and Information Systems
KLASSEN N, Technical University of Munich, Germany
Situated seventy kilometres north of the AIps the Greater Munich area can be charactedsed as one of the main sources of leisure day tdps for the North Alpine regions in Germany and Austria. Especially at good weather conditions and holiday seasons the ove
Situated seventy kilometres north of the AIps the Greater Munich area can be charactedsed as one of the main sources of leisure day tdps for the North Alpine regions in Germany and Austria. Especially at good weather conditions and holiday seasons the ovedap of different traffic purposes - such as day trip, weekend, holiday - cause immense traffic problems. Furthermore the resorts - such as skiing facilities - are crowded and the quality of leisure decreases due to extreme demands. People living in Munich made 34.5 leisure day tdps (DWIF, 1998) per year, which is higher than the average Bavadan or German rate.
One measure to cope with the traffic and toudstic demand problems is to establish a pre-tdp and on-tdp information system. Already existing information systems are combined to provide dynamic toudstic and traffic information. This work is currently undertaken within the work package FUNINFO of the MOBINET project. MOBINET is one of the six sponsored projects, which the German Bundesministedum fuer Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) has chosen to optimise the traffic situation in conurbation areas. The five year total budget of MOBINET is approx. 45 Mio. EURO. MOBINET consists of five work packages which are integrated in the overall assessment and the project evaluation. KELLER ET AL. (1999), KLASSEN ET AL. (2000) and the project brochure MOBINET (2000) give a detailed overview of the project.
Within the working area 'multimedia information systems' FUNINFO deals with the combination of traffic and tourism information to provide an easy-to-use activity planner. Starting point for the planning process is a leisure activity or a specific destination: Door-to-door transport information combined with specific tourism information and possible alternatives is provided via the Intemet, information terminals on site and portables.
Before the information system will be implemented in winter 2000/2001, choice processes and potential impacts should be assessed. The main - and originally only - purpose of this study was to assess impacts of information on destination, time, and mode choice in the leisure day trip. Because the information system was not yet installed, it has been decided to conduct a stated choice (SC) survey on-site. Wether or not choices made in hypothetical situations are congruent with real choices is discussed by vadous authors (BRADLEY, 1988, LOUVIERE, 1988, WIDLERT, 1998, SWANSON, 1998). Therefore two additional methodological study objectives have been included: Are the stated choices stable over time and individually reproducible after 6 weeks? If respondents are equipped with the information system, are they validating their stated choices with their actual behaviour?
This paper concentrates on the methodological process, and first shows the methodological background followed by the general framework of information acquisition for leisure. Based on this, the large survey design will be shown to assess the general factors influencing the choice of destination and time in day trip activities with respect to the Alpine region and the activity of skiing as well as to assess the two additional research hypotheses.
Association for European Transport