Transport Forecasts for the European Union for 2020



Transport Forecasts for the European Union for 2020

Authors

TAVASSZY L, TNO Inro, The Netherlands

Description

In assignment of the European Commission's Directorate General VII, the consortium of TNO Inro (NL), NEA (NL), IWW (University of Karlsruhe, D) and MKmetric (D) carried out research on the forecasting of passenger and freight flows in Europe for the perio

Abstract

In assignment of the European Commission's Directorate General VII, the consortium of TNO Inro (NL), NEA (NL), IWW (University of Karlsruhe, D) and MKmetric (D) carried out research on the forecasting of passenger and freight flows in Europe for the period 1995-2020, with 2000 and 2010 as intermediate years. The objective of the study was to provide an up-to-date, Europe-wide, multimodal description of base year and future freight and passenger flows, making use of a number of assumptions on socio-economic developments and policy options. In this study TNO Inro prepared the background scenarios whereas NEA and IWW/MKmetric assessed the impacts of these scenarios on freight and passenger transport demand, respectively. Based on these flow forecasts an assignment was made by IWW to the European network. An example of a resulting map of the combined passenger and freight traffic is shown on the last page of this paper (figure 3).

Our paper focuses on the scenario assumptions concerning the economic and policy related drivers of transport and on the modelling of passenger transport flows. The freight transport modelling is described in a different paper which was submitted seperately for presentation at the AET 2000 Conference. We describe the assumptions within the 3 scenarios, the passenger model and the outcomes of the modelling process for passenger transport.

Publisher

Association for European Transport