A Model for Monitoring Rail/road Transport Demand in the Short Term



A Model for Monitoring Rail/road Transport Demand in the Short Term

Authors

BERGEL R, INRETS and MUTTER A, University of Paris, France

Description

The paper deals with an econometric modelling of short term transport demand, realized for the French Ministry of Transportation within a working group including SES (the Economical and Statistical Service of the Ministry), SETRA (The Technical Studies Se

Abstract

The paper deals with an econometric modelling of short term transport demand, realized for the French Ministry of Transportation within a working group including SES (the Economical and Statistical Service of the Ministry), SETRA (The Technical Studies Service for Roads and Motorways) and INRETS, in collaboration with statisticians of Paris-1 Pantheon-Sorbonne University.

The model is an aggregate one, applied to both rail and read traffic indicators in a modal, and then bimodal approach, that relates passenger and freight traffic to its main determinants, representing transport supply (prices, network development) and demand (production, consumption).

The modelled traffic indicators are the long distance passenger traffic measured on the national road network (highways and main roads separately) and on rail on one hand, and the whole freight traffic measured on road and rail onthe other hand, from 1980 to 1998.

Univariate time series models with exogenous variables have been used on seasonal monnthly, and quarterly data as well as vectorial autoregressive models with exogenous variables: We discuss the one year term traffic - elasticity values to the main determining factors (economic growth, network ii development and prices ), and compare them with elasticity values obtained With Other. models applied to the same data and on the same period 1998 pedod, with different time series models that have been used in the Ministry for predicting traffic volume one to two year ahead. We compare the average annual errors and discuss the advantages of the different models.

Publisher

Association for European Transport