Multi-modal Modelling for Integrated Planning in Surrey
FANSTONE H and TARRIER M, Surrey County Council, UK
Surrey have had a county model for many years. It was first developed in the 1970s as a classic four-stage land use - transportation model with peak and off peak period traffic assignment models. In the 1980s, when its main purpose was to provide traffic
Surrey have had a county model for many years. It was first developed in the 1970s as a classic four-stage land use - transportation model with peak and off peak period traffic assignment models. In the 1980s, when its main purpose was to provide traffic forecast for highway schemes it become a twelve hour capacity restraint assignment model.
The current model has developed from the early 1990s. This was a time of change in transport policy. The Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) Report that stated that some roads can generate traffic was seen as a turning point. Transport policy shifted from the old "predict and provide" approach to one of traffic restraint and encouragement of other transport modes.
in Surrey specifically, two issues were highly significant in transport terms and in Surrey's decision to develop a new model. The first of these was the Highways Agency's proposals to construct link roads on the M25 motorway. These, in effect, would have widened the carriageway on the M25 to up to 7 lanes in each direction. Surrey County Council were opposed to these proposals and developed a model to demonstrate the impact on Surrey's roads.
The second major issue was the proposed development of Terminal 5 (T5) at Heathrow Airport. Again, Surrey were opposed to this land-use development and developed the model further in order to demonstrate the effects of T5 on both the highway and public transport network and to promote public transport measures as alternatives to the associated highwaY proposals.
The model developed was therefore extremely large and is believed to be the largest of its kind in the country. It needed to cover not just Surrey but the whole of the M25 motorway, and therefore the Southeast of England including London, as well as the rest of the country in a skeletal form. The model base year was 1995 and forecast years included 2001, 2006 and 2011. It modelled seven time periods, including peak hours, shoulder peaks and an average interpeak and included a traffic model, a public transport model and a modal split model to link the two together.
Association for European Transport