Updating the Netherlands National Model



Updating the Netherlands National Model

Authors

BAKKER D, DALY A and MIJJER P, Hague Consulting Group, The Netherlands

Description

The Netherlands National Model has been operational since 1986 and although updates and improvements have been made repeatedly during the intervening years the core models, based primadly on 1982 data, have remained essentially unchanged. The paper descri

Abstract

The Netherlands National Model has been operational since 1986 and although updates and improvements have been made repeatedly during the intervening years the core models, based primadly on 1982 data, have remained essentially unchanged. The paper describes a project that has been undertaken by Hague Consulting Group for the Netherlands Ministry of Transport to update and improve the models.

The main task of this project was to re-estimate the core models of mode and destination choice and of travel frequency; this work was undertaken using data from the National Travel Survey (OVG). In the estimation, comparison has been made both with the original models and with the models that might have been obtained from simple updates. In each case the new models are found to be significantly better in explaining travel behaviour but still to preserve the essential character and many of the response characteristics of the original models. The comparison of old and new models gives important insights into the transferability in time of models of this nature.

A number of important improvements to the models have been made, taking advantage of the developments in modelling, data availability and computer software and hardware capability that have occurred since the mid 80's.

These improvements have enabled much larger data sets to be used for the estimation but have required a number of improvements to be made in estimation methods; these are explained in the paper.

The new models have been used in a number of policy studies since their completion in summer 1999.

The paper particularly focuses on the methodological improvements in data preparation, model estimation and model application that have been necessary to bring the study to a successful completion.

Publisher

Association for European Transport