A Travel Demand Model for Copenhagen
G Jovicic, Danish Transport Research Institute, DK
The passenger demand model for Copenhagen is a state-of-practice tour based nested logit model where the generation, distribution and mode choice models are connected via the measure of accessibility. The model is very detailed in all levels, especially in the mode choice model where a large range of values of travel time are estimated. The model forecasts for 2000 have proved to fit very well to the counted traffic. The model was originally built for predicting the passenger demand of a metro, which will begin the first phase of its operation in the autumn 2002. The model is also used for detailed planning of bus services in the region. Most recently, the model has been applied in a study of road pricing in Copenhagen.
The first version of the model for Copenhagen was developed in 1994 with updates and revisions in 1996, 1998 and 2000. The main revision took place in 2000 with a switch from the trip based to the tour based modelling approach. This change proved to yield large improvements in the model fit to the observed data and in the model forecasts.
The main aim of the paper is to present the structure of the current passenger demand model. Especially, the sub-models are described in detail giving therefore the reader a chance to examine the considered variables and how they are included in the model structure. We have also chosen to present some results of the model application in a study of road pricing for two reasons. First, to provide an idea of how such a policy measure can be modelled and second, to document the plausible magnitude of changes induced by road pricing.
Association for European Transport