Long Term Transport Demand and Financial Forecast for a Large Scale Regional Public Transport Network in Germany



Long Term Transport Demand and Financial Forecast for a Large Scale Regional Public Transport Network in Germany

Authors

Dr. Martin Arnold, INTRAPLAN, Balazs Hajos, INTRAPLAN, Thomas Busch, RMV

Description

The paper presents the main methodological steps and findings in creating a demand and revenue forecast model for the large scale rail and bus network of RMV, the third biggest regional transport system in Germany covering an area of about 14.000km2 and serving around 700 million passengers a year.

Abstract

The paper presents the main methodological steps and findings in creating a demand and revenue forecast model for the large scale rail and bus network of RMV, the third biggest regional transport system in Germany covering an area of about 14.000km2 and serving around 700 million passengers a year.

The Regional Public Transport Plan (RPTP) deals as a basis for the competitive tendering of transport services, the planning and appraisal of future investments, as well as the forecast of the financial conditions in the prognosis horizon. The RMV area deals parallel with an urban sprawl around Frankfurt am Main and a continuously decreasing population of its northern areas, both phenomena requiring new strategies in a budget-tight environment.

The results of the RPTP relied on a detailed analysis of empiric traffic data collected in 2010. Inter-regional flows and detailed commuter statistics were analysed for the creation of a regional matrix with around thousand zones. A modelling environment developed by the consultant for forecasting large scale public transport networks’ future demand was used for estimating transport demand of the base year 2020. The base year forecast included all planned – and appraised in the previous RPTP – developments of the road and the rail network as well. The population growth was forecasted on the level of the zones and on the basis of available forecasts adjusted by changes in the transportation network. Mobility trends were forecasted on the basis of regional surveys, national statistics and current findings in the field of travel behaviour research. The prognosis incorporated traffic forecasts of the rapidly growing Frankfurt airport, the single largest traffic generation point in the network as well.
Traffic demand results were put in a revenue forecast model used for creating the income side of the financial prognosis. The financial forecast proved that by realizing the planned and positively appraised projects of the RPTP, the excessive increase in expenditures on investments and operation will not be accompanied by a similarly paced growth of revenues and subsidies. Findings of the current study further indicate that without new legislative approaches towards financing regional public transportation in the greater Frankfurt area, the region faces great challenges in fulfilling the rising public transport demand.

Publisher

Association for European Transport