Validation of the Operational Traffic Model for Copenhagen

Validation of the Operational Traffic Model for Copenhagen


G Jovicic, Danish Transport Research Institute; C O Hansen, Danish Technical University, DK



The Copenhagen metro opened for operation on October 19th, 2002. Some three months later the counted traffic flow in the metro for an average working day was about 56,000 passengers. This is about 9% less than the official metro forecasts that origin from the operational traffic model for Copenhagen. The paper aims to provide a detailed validation of the model?s forecasting results relative to different types of external data, i.e. national and international travel surveys, and traffic counts, focusing at the structure of the passenger demand and passenger assignment models as parts of the Copenhagen model. The model is validated for forecast years 2000 and 2003. For year 2000, generation and distribution model may be compared with data from the 2000 Danish national travel survey and some available international travel surveys. The most important external data for the model validation in the year 2003 are traffic counts for the metro, bus, train and car traffic.


Association for European Transport