Changes in Travel Demand in Budapest During the Last 10 Years
Mr. Mattias Juhász, BKK Centre For Budapest Transport, Mr. Tamás Mátrai, BKK Centre For Budapest Transport, Mr. László Sándor Kerényi, BKK Centre For Budapest Transport
The objective of this paper is to assess the recent changes in travel demand in Budapest and collect the possible main drivers. From data comparison conclusion could be drawn concerning the changes in the transport system usage in a changing economic environment.
Knowledge of travel demand should always be the platform to shape public transport services, road and rail network. But shaping networks could only be based on long term trends and it might be difficult to get to know the prompt demand and forecast it. It is even harder if there are significantly changing circumstances like urban sprawl, regional development and economic changes. Even the way in we are reacting to these changes also has secondary effects.
Before 2008, in the feasibility studies of road and rail developments in Hungary have been calculated with a notable growth in travel demand justified by the expectable growth of motorization, which is still under the EU average. After the credit crunch an over-optimistic approach was used in the estimations: slight decrease during the transition period for 3-5 years, then an intensive increase. However there was not any change in the estimation of mode choice: public transport can protect its modal share and a slight increase is possible.
Realistically there was a bigger and more complex change in travel patterns. Particularly in Budapest the urban sprawl effect slowed down during the crisis and then stopped in 2010. At the same time the share of cycling has significantly increased while the decrease of public transport has stopped and reversed. However the recent city center rehabilitation projects (New High Street of the City Center, Heart of Budapest) also has their effects.
The objective of this paper is to assess the recent changes in travel demand in Budapest and collect the possible main drivers. In this evaluation an extensive database from 2004 was compared with the results of recent analyses. From the data comparison conclusion could be drawn concerning the changes in the transport system usage in a changing economic environment.
Association for European Transport