Expected Impact of New Information and Communication Technologies On Transports in the Ile De France Region
M Chevreuil, ISIS, Groupe EGIS; Y La Corte, DREIF, FR
Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are invading all sectors of activity and particularly the sector of transport of persons and goods. The growing penetration and use of mobile telephony, Internet and satellite pave the way for a multitude of roaming applications and services in the mobility context but raise a lot of questions:
* What will be the impact of ICT on mobility and daily life in 10 years, 20 years?
* What will be the new offer in terms of ICT based services associated to transport?
* How ICT applications for transport networks operation and maintenance will impact networks capacity?
* How the transport demand will evolve with the emerging new mobility practices and consumption modes ·How public authorities should support private initiatives in the field of ICT in order to promote public transport ?
In order to answer these questions, the DREIF (State authority in charge of transport policy and planning activities in the Paris Area) launched in 2003 a study to investigate the potential impact of ICT on transport.
This paper will present the methodology conjointly proposed by the Consortium IDATE, b-sharp, ISIS and DREIF and the results that will be available by mid 2004.
2. OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY
The study aims at responding to the two following main questions:
*What are main impacts on transport and mobility, of a ?natural development? of ICT
* What are the institutional and organisational measures to be taken in order to support rational and coordinated use of ICT at regional level.
Answers to these questions are to be formulated in relation with the objectives of the Ile-de-France Mobility Plan adopted by all involved authorities. The proposed approach includes the following steps:
2.1. STATE OF THE ART OF TECHNOLOGIES
It consists in identification of the likely future ICT evolutions (?natural? development), at short and medium term horizons (2010 ? 2020), with estimation of penetration rates and potential impacts on offer and demand. This first step will allow to build an impact matrix that will be used for the following steps. This task will be achieved using different tools :
*A bibliography research ·Interviews of key actors in the domain of ICT or transports
*Case studies and inventory of projects in development in other great cities of the world (US and Asia)
2.2. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN PARIS ILE DE FRANCE REGION
During this second step, the potential impact of the ICT will be assessed using 3 different views :
*Related potential benefits for road traffic and public transports.
*Identification of potential ICT regional solutions for alleviating particular difficulties (local malfunctions of the network, disruptions, bottlenecks, ..)
*Potential development scenarios for information services
Impact assessment will be carried out with the support of DREIF strategic simulation model.
In this third step, a reference scenario will be built, using the results of the previous steps. This scenario will be based on the ?do-nothing? case and will present the transport situation in descriptive, qualitative and quantitative terms such as travel time, capacity of the infrastructure, reliability of the transport system. These results will be compared to the objectives of the Mobility Plan, according to the following process:
*Quantification of divergences
*Identification of the causes
*Identification of potential corrective actions, that could be implemented by the authorities to meet the Mobility Plan objectives.
The study will end with the production of a recommendation report for the regional authorities.
Association for European Transport