Economic Development and Changes in Car Ownership Patterns

Economic Development and Changes in Car Ownership Patterns


A Matas, J L Raymond, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, ES


The objective of the study is to quantify the factors underlying the increase in car ownership in Spain from 1980 to 2000. The study relies on discrete data modelled using an ordered probit model. The results are presented in terms of elasticities.


In this study we analyse the factors determining the growth in car ownership in Spain over the last three decades. A discrete choice model on a household level is estimated at three points in time: 1980, 1990 and 2000. On the one hand, this time span allows us to observe how the relationship between car ownership and the explanatory factors has changed from a market in clear expansion to a mature one. On the other, it makes it possible to quantify the contribution of each factor. We use micro data from the Spanish Household Budget Survey (EPF).

A further interest of the paper lies in the evidence provided on empirical grounds for the two alternative decision mechanisms used for car ownership modelling: ordered-response versus unordered-response mechanisms.


Association for European Transport