Abstract Forecasting on the Trans European Networks (TEN STAC)
P Hilferink, A Vilcan, NEA Transport Research and Training, NL
One of the objectives of the TEN-STAC study was to assess 70 major projects in Europe.
One of the problems in calculating these ratios was the interdependence between the projects.
The paper describes how this was approached and the results.
On behalf of the European Commission a Consortium of European institutes headed by NEA executed the TEN-STAC project in 2003-2004. The preliminary phase consisted of forecasts for interregional transport and traffic both for passengers and freight and by mode under three scenarios. The geographical area consisted of an enlarged Europe and included the new member states and the candidate countries Romania and Bulgaria. The Commission had at that stage identified more than 75 infrastructure projects on 30 corridors. In the second phase, the objective of the study was to calculate about 30 ratios for each of the projects varying from transport economic ratios to external ones. Most of which were related to freight transport as the main focus of the Commission on interregional land transport is on freight.
One of the problems in calculating these ratios was the interdependence between the projects: some projects were in competition with each other while others were enforcing each other.
The proposed paper describes how these interdependences were approached and the results achieved. The approach consists of the following steps:
? split the projects into several categories based on the stage of implementation
? create on top of a reference scenario 2 for the situation of the base year a reference scenario including the projects already decided
? combine the remaining projects into logical groups, based on corridors, so that projects strongly enforcing each other are in the same group
? approach 1: execute the following forecast runs: one run per corridor in relation to scenario 2 and calculate the desired ratios
? approach 2: execute an all corridors run including all projects and calculate the desired ratio?s also in this case; the effects of the projects on each segment of the infrastructure are split up towards the individual projects using an analytical approach developed in the study
? Compare and explain the differences between the results in the two approaches
Since the financial requirement for all the projects together exceeds the amount of money available in Europe, approach nr.1 is considered the most appropriate. The approach using all of the projects will be used for a sensitivity analysis to avoid competing project that influence the same flows both being chosen.
Association for European Transport