Property Values and Public Transport Investment
D Banister, Bartlett School of Planning, UCL, UK; M Thurstain-Goodwin, Geofutures, UK
Traditional methods of evaluation have not been very successful in accounting for non-transport benefits resulting from transport investments. But increasingly, these factors are becoming more important in well-developed transport networks, as the effects of additional links or capacity cannot be justified in transport terms alone. This paper reports on an extensive international review of the evidence of the impacts of transport investment on land and property values at the local level. It then identifies the key components of a method that can be applied to the measurement of property value and property market changes. Quantitative and qualitative analyses need to be undertaken to establish statistical and other relationships, which then need to be interpreted through interviews with key developers and other agents in the property market sector. It involves the use of Geographically Weighted Regression embedded within a GIS analysis that controls for as much as possible of the variance in the data over time, including the steep gradient of impacts away from the transport investment. It also comments on the problems associated with the assembly of data, and the complementary accessibility analysis that is carried out as part of the process. The methodology is then applied to the Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) in London, where a major new transport investment has had a measurable, yet very variable impact on the corridor through south and east London, and on the network as a whole. In the concluding sections, some of the problems of analysis are highlighted, together with a commentary on the means to further progress research in this important area.
Association for European Transport