Traffic Forecasting Risk Study Update 2005: Through Ramp-up and Beyond
R Bain, Standard & Poor?s, UK
Over the past three years the credit rating agency Standard & Poor?s has published a series of reports reflecting on the performance of traffic forecasts. The original study concentrated on toll roads however, in 2004, data became available to allow for a comparative analysis of the traffic forecasting performance of toll roads with that from toll-free roads.
Standard & Poor?s 2005 traffic risk study (?Through Ramp-Up and Beyond?) further extends our analysis. Until now, our focus has been on the first year of operations ? typically a very sensitive time in terms of the generation of project cash flows robust enough to meet construction-related debt repayment obligations. Our 2005 study looks beyond this first year, at forecasting performance in years 2, 3, 4 etc.
Some industry observers have commented that our earlier focus on Year 1 of highway operations may have generated results that failed to represent project performance over the longer term. Our 2005 study addresses this issue head-on, with results that may surprise some readers.
Association for European Transport