Monitoring Progress Towards the GB Casualty Reduction Target
Jeremy Broughton, TRL, UK
In 2000, a national casualty reduction target for Great Britain for 2010 was announced. TRL was commissioned to monitor progress towards the new target and this paper will present results of the monitoring.
In March 2000, a national casualty reduction target for Great Britain for 2010 was announced by the Government: ?By 2010 we want to achieve, compared with the average for 1994-98:
a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents;
a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, expressed as the number of people slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres?
A key element in preparing the new target was to forecast the number of casualties in 2010, taking account wherever possible of factors that might influence this number substantially. The forecasts had been prepared by TRL, based on detailed analyses of casualty trends from 1983 and incorporating assessments of future measures for improving road safety.
TRL was subsequently commissioned to monitor progress towards the new target. This paper will review the results of the monitoring, which has built upon the earlier forecasting methodology to assess the likelihood of achieving or surpassing the target.
It will also summarise recent British casualty trends. A particular topic of concern has been the failure of the number of deaths to fall after 1998. When the analysis to inform the choice of target for 2010 was carried out, there was no clear difference between the trends for fatal and serious casualties, so it was decided that there should no separate target for the number of deaths. It has now become clear that the trend in the number of deaths changed in the mid-1990s. Analyses of accident statistics which have helped to identify the likely reasons will be presented.
Association for European Transport