Outlook for World Trade, Economic Growth, Globalisation, and the Resulting Freight Flows, Especially Between the European Union and Russia
K Lautso, P Venäläinen, HLehto, WSP Developments FI; K Hietala, Kara Hietala Ltd FI; E Jaakkola, Matrex Ltd, FI; M Miettinen, Transys Ltd, FI; W Segercrantz, ANSERI Consultants Ltd, FI
This work examines the development of economic growth in the main economic agglomerations of the world and the resulting new distribution of freight flows. A more detailed analysis is made for the international freight flows of the EU and Russia.
This work examines the development of economic growth in the main economic agglomerations of the world; their current and future import and export volumes and the resulting new distribution of freight flows between the economic regions. A more detailed analysis is made for international trade of the EU and Russia. The study also focuses on the special role of Finland as a transit country for international transports of Russia.
Due to globalisation, production will move to the growing economic areas of Asia. The simultaneous growth of population and production in the area will create an economic agglomeration, which will surpass the growth of Europe and the United States. This phenomenon will have a dramatic impact on the directions and volumes of freight flows of world trade.
Trade and economic dependency between the EU and Russia will also grow and these areas will constitute a nearly integrated economic area.
The above-mentioned developments are reflected in freight transport as follows:
Export of the EU 25 (excluding energy products) to rapidly developing economic areas (the CIS, China, India and the Dynamic Asian Economies) and Russia will triple by the year 2030.
Import to the EU 25 (excluding energy products) from rapidly developing economic areas will grow by a factor of 2?3 by the year 2030. Import from Russia will triple in the base scenario.
Finally, the estimated trade flows were assigned and illustrated on the main transport corridors between the EU and Russia. These flows use many different routes (sea, rail, road and pipes), whose roles have been assessed using the forecasted new distribution and volumes of trade between the main economic agglomerations in the world. Finland will, according to these estimates maintain its role as the most important country for transit traffic, especially for Russian import.
The forecasts are based on statistical data (The World Bank, OECD, Eurostat etc.) on current and past development of GNP, international trade, export shares etc. of the main economic agglomerations of the world. Based on this data economic growth scenarios and the distribution of freight flows between different countries have been made for the year 2030. In most cases the results for EU 15 and EU 25 are disaggregated and energy products treated separately from other products. The development of the Russian economy and the resulting effects on freight flows is based on three alternative political and economic scenarios. STAN model was used in freight flow assignments.
The paper is based on a study funded by the Ministry of Transport and Communications of Finland (Lautso, K. et al., 2005).
Lautso, K. et al. (2005): Current status and development outlook for transport connections between the EU and Russia, Ministry of Transport and Communications of Finland, Publication 4/2005
Association for European Transport