Freight Transit Traffic Within Transport Modelling: the Case of Belgium
T Pauwels, University of Antwerp, BE
Freight mode choice literature and freight models are studied in order to find out if conclusions and instruments can be used to analyze transit traffic.
We start from the observation that road freight transit traffic in Belgium is an important (political) issue. Freight transit traffic in a country is defined as freight flows being moved on the national infrastructure without loading or unloading of the goods on this infrastructure. An analysis of this transit traffic will be made from the point of view of modelling mode choice in freight transport (hinterland transportation: road, rail and inland navigation).
The literature about freight mode choice (including freight models) is analyzed starting from the research question: can the conclusions and instruments of mode choice literature and freight models be used to analyze the transit traffic? For example, if another type of pricing transport is introduced in a country, what are then the consequences for freight mode choice, transit traffic and economy?
Based on the findings of the literature analysis, a freight model will be selected and used that can give insight about the relations between mobility, economy, mode choice and transit traffic. Before deriving policy conclusions based on simulations of the model, a sensitivity analysis is being carried out. This means that a working domain of the model will be outlined in which it can be used. We distinguish three steps to carry out a sensitivity analysis. Firstly, how sensitive is the output of the model for a variation of the exogenous variables? Secondly, how sensitive is the output of the model for a variation of pre-fixed (estimated) parameters? Thirdly, how sensitive is the output of the model when the model would be re-estimated on the basis of an adjusted dataset? Once the sensitivity analysis has been performed, adequate policy conclusions can be drawn.
The freight transit traffic will be defined from the point of view of external costs, and more specifically marginal congestion costs, marginal infrastructure costs, marginal environmental costs and marginal accident costs.
Freight transit traffic in Belgium will be estimated, based on the available information. The question is: can we quantify the freight transit traffic in Belgium? If so, how detailed can it be quantified in absolute values and in relative values? Absolute values are characterized by tonnage and/or tonkilometres. Relative values are marked by the number of transit traffic relative to import, export, inland transport, passenger transport, transport by inland navigation, transport by rail,?
In a final chapter, main conclusions will be gathered in order to derive (among others) policy conclusions about freight transit traffic within transport modelling.
Association for European Transport