The Impact of the High Speed System on the Naples - Rome Railway Link
Mauro Catalani, Naples Parthenope University, IT
The paper essentially analyses the impact of high speed train based on a discrete choice approach.A RP survey , analyses the behaviour of the passengers choosing between different train alternatives along the line.
The high speed (HS) railway system in Italy has been developed on two main routes: Milano-Bologna-Firenze-Roma-Napoli and Torino-Milano-Verona-Padova-Venezia.. The new system runs parallel to the current line. The main objective of the new line is the reduction of travel time (attaining a speed of approx. 350 Km/h) and a substantial increase in passengers and freight along the existent network. The payback of the capital invested will derive essentially from the economic return of new service by a mixed system of public and private entrepreneurial management. The infrastructure , switched from the services, will remain under public control. We must consider that the high speed system is very important along the stretch under examination, i.e. Naples-Rome, because the traffic reaches a relevant concentration of passengers x km transported.
The importance of a railway link between Naples and Rome is essentially due to fact that the network configuration , as well as the traffic between the two poles (only one big city) also brings a great quantity of long distance traffic through Rome on the way to and from southern Italy . An increase in the flow of passengers on the Milan-Rome-Naples routes is foreseeable, and to meet it, new, larger, infrastructures need to be constructed as the existing ones are saturated. An expansion solution is therefore required involving quadrupling the lines.
This paper essentially proposes to assess the impact of the high speed system arising from the complete implementation of the new ETR 500 train now used on old lines but running at a reduced speed limit because of the old tracks currently in use. It is also important to test various new pricing strategy hypotheses using a punctual elasticy methodology based on a kernell logit with variable coefficients (Ben Akiva 2005). How much demand will the new train create? The possibility of connecting the high speed network to the existing railways will minimise delays due to changing speed from one side to the other to avoid conflicts of circulation, using above ground level interconnections, where possible.
Essentially the problem of introducing a high speed system derives from the abnormal traffic flow as exercise of only one truck or parallel running whose resolution requires the wide use of computerised support. Another element that can influence pricing strategy is to maintain the infrastructure because HS requires costs programming which must be coordinated with the existing network. In terms of speed, an ETR 500 eurostar takes one hour and ten minutes on the Rome-Naples stretch, while a conventional train takes at least one hour and forty-six minutes, due to an increase in velocity. In operational terms, the HS network will free the major part of the basic network of daytime and long distance night travellers. Clearly, this means new opportunities will be created for commercial use of the basic primary and secondary networks for freight, and there will also be an improvement in traffic flow along the traditional network.
Given that passenger traffic flow along the Milan Rome Naples line should fall by over 60%, it is feasible that freight traffic may well more than double. The increased potential of HS infrastructure which the Rome-Naples stretch will enjoy, with its 46 HS trains and interconnection with the existing line will give 13 Km of variation on the slow line over a total of 204 Km. Our study will test passenger choice of Eurostar trains running with speed limitations on the old line, fully assessing train efficiency on the new high speed line. Clearly, we will calculate the impact of the new system with direct and cross elasticity compared with other trains on the old line. To do this, we have had to obtain data necessary to measure the model. These data are based on research details on an existing line supplied by the Ferrovia dello Stato(FS), the Italian national railways network.
The RP survey ,managed by FS, analyses the behaviour of the passengers in choosing between different train alternatives along the line. The model will be estimated using hierarchical Bayes methodology. This approach establishes (Bhat C, 2000), (Revelt , and Train K, 1998, Ben Akiva e Wolker 2003) that under certain conditions the Bayesian approach is a classical estimator of the maximum likelihood . The results of our application will be presented in standard format estimated models, namely by showing the parameter estimates and their standard errors. The Bayesian procedure will take into consideration passenger choices from among Eurostar, intercity and direct trains (Train K,-Sonnier G, 2003):
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