ANTONIN: Updating and Comparing a Transport Model for the Paris Region
Laurence Debrincat, Syndicat des Transports d?Ile de France, FR; Marits Pieters, Jan Gerrit Tuinenga, RAND Europe, NL
The paper describes the ANTONIN model system and its use in project evaluation in the Paris region. It discusses main results of a recent update study showing changes in factors influencing travel behaviour and a new PT pass ownership model.
The ?Enquête Globale des Transports (EGT)? is a household transport survey that is organised every 5 to 10 years in the Ile-de-France region (Greater Paris). The survey describes travel behaviour by over 10,000 households and some 25,000 people making over 80,000 trips that consist of one or more travel modes.
Based on the EGT 1991/92 a transport model was developed in the early nineties to analyse future travel behaviour for the Ile-de-France region. This model, named ANTONIN (?ANalyse des TranspOrts et de Nouvelles INfrastructures?), is built under a disaggregate modelling framework using (multinomial) logit models to predict the various choices made by travellers in the region. ANTONIN includes disaggregate model components to describe licence holding, car ownership, tour frequency, destination and mode choice in the region, followed by detailed (mainly Public Transport) network assignment modules. The model system is unique in the use of a great number of travel modes (especially Public Transport is available in 10 combinations of station access and in-vehicle travel modes) and purposes (10 purposes, modelling both primary and secondary tours). Combined with its use of some 1000 travel zones, it allows for a detailed look at model results. Since its inception some 10 years ago it has been used by the Syndicat des Transports d?Ile de France in numerous forecasting and project evaluation studies in the region.
Recently the various components of the model system were re-estimated using the EGT 2001/02. Given that the original structure of both the EGT survey and the disaggregate logit models were kept very similar, model estimation results could be analysed over a period of 10 years time, thus allowing to compare the (change in the) various factors determining travel behaviour over that period.
A new feature in the updated ANTONIN model is the modelling of Public Transport pass ownership. Until recently, decision rules were used to determine PT pass ownership, but the recent update of the model system allowed to actually model the use of these passes, thus allowing for the various personal and household characteristics to be taken into account.
The paper starts with a short description of the main characteristics of the model system and the use of ANTONIN in forecasting/project evaluation by the Syndicat des Transports d?Ile de France. Subsequently, the main results of the recent update study are discussed showing the key changes in the factors that influence travel behaviour in the various model components. The paper also describes the results of the new PT pass ownership model and the method of incorporating it into the current modelling framework.
Association for European Transport