A Model Estimating the Potential Demand for Urban Delivery Vehicles Using Double Fuel Engines



A Model Estimating the Potential Demand for Urban Delivery Vehicles Using Double Fuel Engines

Authors

Seraphim Kapros, University Of The Aegean, Anna Karamigkou, University Of The Aegean

Description

The proposed project aims at developing a model for estimating the real potential demand for bi-fuel small commercial vehicles used for urban delivery operations. The model is more particularly applied in the case of double fuel engine vehicles combining either gasoline and LNG or gasoline and CNG internal combustion.

Abstract

The proposed project aims at developing a model for estimating the real potential demand for bi-fuel small commercial vehicles used for urban delivery operations. The model is more particularly applied in the case of double fuel engine vehicles combining either gasoline and LNG or gasoline and CNG internal combustion.

Even if a strong trend for the promotion of green urban logistics relates to electric vehicles in the long term, it is estimated by several actors that electric vehicles’ technology needs at least one decade of further progress, before its use is significantly diffused. The reasons relate to various technical parameters such as capacity and autonomy restrictions, as well as to energy supply networks and processes at the current stage. In the meanwhile, in many countries a relatively important share of transport/logistics operators make a strategic choice: to convert existing commercial vehicles of traditional gasoline internal combustion engine into double fuel engine vehicles, allowing more particularly the combination of gasoline/LNG or gasoline/CNG combustion. This on-going process specifically concerns fleets of light trucks and VANs used for urban delivery operations; it is very often related to relevant local policy incentives with the aim to promote green transport in the cities.

The conversion is technologically easy and the relevant investment is usually affordable. The expected benefits in terms of combustion economies are significant for the operators. Similarly, important reduction of transport externalities is expected, justifying the relevant policies of public authorities. The proposed model aims at estimating the real potential of this market.

The paper is based on a case-study application in Athens-Greece. In the first step, it provides an analysis of the urban freight and logistics market structure, based on official professional, administrative and statistical sources. Following the results of this analysis, the paper defines a representative sample of companies, in order to perform a field survey and collect data. Transport and traffic data (vehicle-km, fleet size etc) are combined with market price data (for investment and operations) as well as with calculation of emissions data. Stated Preference and Revealed Preference (SP/RP) experiments are also attempted, conducting to the estimation of a Logit model.

The proposed model allows calculating and assessing the bi-fuel technologies’ potential, mainly based on the trade-off between economies in operational transport cost and investments/maintenance costs. It also provides the respective socio-economic benefits.

The proposed model might be an important policy tool, able to examine various strategy scenarios concerning the promotion of bi-fuel technologies of commercial vehicles for urban logistics purposes. It can be also applicable to other technological alternatives of vehicles in the framework of “green transport” policy developments.

Publisher

Association for European Transport