Predicting the Future of Transport for Tourism: a UK Example



Predicting the Future of Transport for Tourism: a UK Example

Authors

L Lumsdon, R Davies, Institute of Transport and Tourism, University of Central Lancashire, UK

Description

The prediction of future levels of transport for tourism is likely to become more pressing given the mounting evidence linking the growth in transport provision directly to climatic change.

Abstract

Predicting the future of transport for tourism: a UK example

Professor les Lumsdon and Richard Davies, Research Assistant, Institute of Transport and Tourism, University of Central Lancashire. Contact: lmlumsdon@uclan.ac.uk

The prediction of future levels of transport for tourism is likely to become more pressing given the mounting evidence linking the growth in transport provision directly to climatic change. The determination of future levels of transport by way of traditional methods such as time series extrapolation may prove to be less accurate than in more stable conditions enjoyed in previous decades.

The paper summarises a Delphi survey of experts in the North West of England in 2006. Over 80 planners and transport or tourism managers were asked to predict likely developments in transport and tourism within a 10-year period. A key point about a Delphi technique is that it is meant to achieve a broad consensus among experts. In this case there was consensus that tourism will grow in this region, despite a continual growth of outbound low cost flights. However, the experts also predicted little change in provision of transport infrastructure for tourism and in the overall transport policy of the region. Nor did they consider that tourists would become more environmentally conscious in their travel habits. More importantly, the techniques reflected a lack of consensus about sustainable development reflecting a major divide between practitioners on how this will affect future policy.

Professor Les Lumsdon and Richard Davies, Research Assistant, Institute of Transport and Tourism, University of Central Lancashire. Contact: lmlumsdon@uclan.ac.uk

Publisher

Association for European Transport