ITS for Monitoring and Estimating Road Accident Probability for Dangerous Goods Transport
F Russo, A Vitetta, C Rindone, G Delfino, A Quattrone,Mediterranea University of Reggio Calabria, IT
In this paper is proposed:
1. a model that allows to estimate road accident probability involving dangerous goods;
2. an integrated telematic system to monitor dangerous goods transport at regional level.
In Italy the quantity of dangerous goods transported by road amounts approximately to an annual total of 85.000.000 tons, that affects on road goods mobility for about 6.8%.
Dangerous Goods Transport (DGT) involves risk that can be defined as a cardinal measure of potential economic loss, human injury or environmental damage in terms of both incident probability and the magnitude of the loss, injury or damage. Risk depends on: probability that an emergency event occurs; vulnerability of the system; exposure of the system. Exposure can be defined as the equivalent homogeneous weighted value of people, goods and infrastructures affected during and after the event.
To reduce this risk it?s possible to implement prevention strategies to reduce the probability component.
In this paper is proposed:
1.a model that allows to estimate road accident probability involving dangerous goods;
2.an integrated telematic system to monitor DGT at regional level.
1. Model for road accidents
The proposed model to estimate road accident probability involving dangerous goods is based on a nested structure representing a set of three macro-events that characterize the incident:
1)a vehicle is involved in a road accident with or without dangerous goods,
2)a vehicle with dangerous goods or its components is failed,
3)a dangerous good generates a consequence on surrounding environment,
Single event can be represented by different components:
? for a road accident, the conditioned probability components are the follows:
i) an heavy vehicle is involved;
ii) a vehicle carrying dangerous goods is involved (alone or with other vehicles);
iii) a release of dangerous goods is verified.
Singles probabilities relative to these components are estimated with descriptive model calibrated based on the official data relative to the years 2000-2004; models to estimate these probabilities depends on human factors and environmental characteristics;
? for a failure of vehicle, the probability components are the follows:
i) an element of container of dangerous good is failed;
ii) a release of dangerous goods is verified.
Singles probabilities relative to these components are estimated with descriptive model available in literature; models to estimate these probabilities depends on vehicle characteristics;
? for an effect generates from a dangerous good (for example dispersion, fire or explosion), the probability is estimated with a model calibrated based on the official data relative to the incidents involving dangerous goods in Italy relative to the years 1995-2005.
Is possible obtain the data needed for estimating road accident probability (that depends on heavy vehicle involving dangerous goods flows), using a telematic system for monitoring DGT.
2. Integrated telematic system
In Italy several initiatives for monitoring DGT have been led, many of these are based on use of the ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems). However, the experiences which aim to the application of new technologies at DGT in Italy have been separately led from different institutions and for the greater part without the adoption of a reference framework and any standard. For the fragmentary of the adopted solutions (heterogeneous technologies and different protocols), the results carried out are not interfaceable between each other. That involves difficulty of any large range initiative and minors possibility of economy of scale.
The European Commission, has developed an European ITS Architecture with the KAREN Project (Keystone Architecture Required for European Networks). KAREN supplies a platform of reference for development of the products and ITS services in Europe. Therefore, KAREN offers a complete section in the Functional Architecture about goods management (8. Manage Freight and Fleet Operations).
In this paper, starting from an analysis of the European ITS Architecture, the application of the standard KAREN in the activities of design and realization of an integrated telematic system to monitor DGT at regional level is proposed.
A specific telematic system that allows the monitoring of transport network main intercity roads and nodes (ports, interports, multimodal platforms) and the management of DGT at regional level is designed. The telematic system contains also the model for road accident evaluation reported in this paper. In particular, we specify the main monitoring system elements in terms of:
? User Needs, which are a list of the purchaser?s necessities and requirements obtained with an SP survey;
? Functional Arhitecture, that contains diagrams called Data Flow Diagrams (DFD) that describe the exchange of Data Flow between Functions (ITS technologies that contribute to satisfying of User Needs), Database and Terminators (agencies exteriors to the system but that interact with it).
Moreover, some conclusive consideration regarding general aspects related to the KAREN application to the design of a DGT monitoring system are reported.
Association for European Transport