Emissions of CO2 from Freight Transport in London: Trends and Policies for Long Run Reductions
A M Zanni, A L Bristow, Loughborough University, UK
This paper analyses and projects freight transport related CO2 emissions in London, and examines
the potential impact of measures to reduce these emissions in the long run
Freight transport plays an essential role in London?s life and economy. However, despite this importance, road freight movements have received far less attention in recent years than passenger travel in terms of both analysis and modelling; and this particularly applies to the analysis of the climate change impact of urban freight transport systems in an evolving policy setting. The aim of this paper, based on research implemented in the framework of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research ?Cities? Programme, is therefore twofold:
? to analyse and project freight transport related CO2 emissions in London,
? and to examine the potential impact of measures to reduce these emissions in the long run.
This paper makes three key contributions in reporting:
? an analysis of trends in road freight transport CO2 emissions in London.
? the results of a Delphi survey of experts to enhance our understanding of drivers of change and the potential impacts and adaptability to the case of London of the range of measures identified through the literature review, as well as additional measures currently considered by London?s government and transport authorities.
? an application of the findings of both a literature review and Delphi to provide projections of carbon emissions in London to 2050 with and without interventions, in order to provide policy recommendations.
A profile of road freight traffic movements and carbon emissions in London has been developed for the last decade. Freight vehicle kilometres have increased by 22.9% (from 1993 to 2005 ? the full set of available data) with particular growth in the use of Light Goods Vehicles and 6 axle Heavy Goods Vehicles. Emissions from freight transport in London are estimated to have increased by 18.3%% between 1993 and 2005. Simple projections suggest that emissions may increase by 30% from 2005 to 2025 and by 85% by 2050 in the absence of further policy interventions.
A review of available studies analysing freight movements and policy impact in an urban setting was undertaken and revealed a limited evidence base on the impacts on carbon emissions of particular measures. In order to gain a greater understanding of both the drivers of trends in freight emissions in London and the potential of a range of measures to reduce emissions a Delphi survey has been developed. This will be distributed to a sample of around 60 among academics, freight operators, transport and Local Authority officers identified as having either generic expertise in the freight policy area and / or with specific experience in the London context. The first round of this survey will take place in February 2008. The results will be employed to analyse the impact of a set of freight and non-freight related transport policy initiatives on CO2 emissions from freight transport in London. The set of initiatives to be examined includes: promotion of e-commerce and shopping, consolidation centres, collection delivery points, vehicle reception points, loading bay provision, information and communication technologies, higher capacity vehicles, alternative fuels and propulsion technologies, national and local pricing policies, eco-driving or SAFED, regulatory restrictions on vehicle movements or types of vehicle, collaborative systems and the Freight Operator Recognition Scheme developed by Transport for London. Consideration will also be given to the best ways of encouraging take-up of specific initiatives within the wider context of urban sustainable transport policies.
Association for European Transport