Simulation of Measures to Reduce Urban Transport Emissions and Energy Use
B.Van Zeebroeck, O.Ivanova, K. Vanherle, Transport & Mobility Leuven, BE
TMLeuven developed a model to support cities for determining the impact of technological and pricing measures on transport emissions. The model takes all major emissions, generalised costs and taxes in account and calculates modal shift effects.
"Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML) made a model with the aim of simulating emissions and energy use reducing measures in the transport sector and assessing their emission reducing potential as well as their costs. Emission reductions in the transport sector can mainly be obtained by technological measures and by behavioural measures. A technological measure is for example the use of low friction oil in car engines. Changes in behaviour can be obtained by pricing measures like cordon pricing for example. The model can simulate both kinds of measures.
Changes in behaviour influence often only indirectly emissions via their influence on transport volumes for different transport modes. The model therefore contains a ?modal shift? part. The modal shift is calculated by a ?constant elasticity of substitution? (CES) tree linking price changes to transport mode volume changes. Actually the tree contains peak and off peak transport and public and car transport. In future, the tree can be extended. The tree determines the modal split of the transport volume.
Transport prices are the major driver for changes in transport volumes and are determined by different costs. The model takes time costs and money costs or expenditures into account. Time costs consists of waiting time and in vehicle time, expenditures of purchase cost, repair and maintenance cost, insurance costs,?The model pays particular attention to taxes as a separate category. Taxes are a cost for the transport user paying the tax. At the level of the society however, taxes cannot be considered as a cost as they are only a transfer from one social group to another social group.
Changes in technology influence often directly emissions without changes in transport volumes. The model therefore contains emission factors able to reflect changes in technology. These emission factors are based on COPERT IV emission calculations effectuated in TREMOVE.
The model uses a two layer approach to keep the model transparent and useable by users of all backgrounds; an aggregated layer and a detailed layer. To keep the modal split part (CES tree) transparant, the model aggregates emission factors and costs feeding the modal split part of the model. The source data behind the aggregated emissions and costs are however very detailed. Users can change these detailed source data. The changes in detailed cost data will be translated into aggregated figures which feed the modal split part.
For the Brussels environmental administration, TML simulated among others, measures like a greening of the car taxation, measures to discourage the use of company cars, increase of parking fees, introduction of a cordon tax in Brussels,?. For each simulation, TML calculated the emission reductions for the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O and the pollutants NOx, VOC and PM and the changes in time costs, expenditures and taxes."
Association for European Transport