Analysis of Mobility and Location Impacts of the HS-rail Link Roma Napoli Using Within-day Dynamic Mode Service Choice
E Cascetta, A Papola, F Pagliara, V Marzano, Università di Napoli ?Federico II?, IT
The objective of this paper is to analyse both mobility and location impacts of the HS/HC rail link Rome-Naples through an RP survey. Data gathered will be then used to estimate models able to reproduce/forecast both generated demand and modal share.
The decrease in travel times, the highest regularity, the better quality of the services and the improved accessibility are the main factors of success of the High Speed (HS) rail links. Both mobility and location choices can be affected by the introduction of such services. In the first case, usually connected with longer distances, they are a potential substitute for air travel. The HS rail links between Paris and Lyon, Paris and London and Tokyo and Osaka could be seen as examples of this type of rail connection. In the second case, usually connected with medium-short distances, a number of regions that are linked together into a string of cities are transformed to an extended functional region or, in other words, an integrated economic corridor. The HS rail line binds housing and labour markets together to a commuting region. Examples of this type can be found in Germany and in Spain.
In this paper, evidence of the impacts of the new HS/HC rail link between Rome and Naples will be provided on the basis of a survey which will be carried out next March. This rail link can be considered as an example of the second type of HS rail links. Concerning the service, the rail link of 195 km from Rome till Gricignano of Aversa was opened in December 2005. Rail travel times on the new 300 km/h line were reduced from 1 hour and 54 minutes to 87 minutes with a significant improvement in regularity due to less interferences with other trains. The line is not completed yet as the section of 18 km from Gricignano of Aversa to Naples Afragola and the link penetrating the node of Naples are still under construction and they will be completed by 2008.
The new rail link connects the metropolitan area of Rome and Naples with a number of residents equal to 4,1 and 3,6 millions respectively.
Surveys and methods for observation
An RP survey was undertaken by Trenitalia (the Commercial Division of Italian railways) among train users travelling between Rome and Naples before the HS/HC rail service was opened. This survey was carried out on Eurostar (ES), Intercity and Direct trains and the results were already presented at this conference in 2006 (Catalani, 2006). It emerged that passengers of Eurostar and Intercity trains mainly travelled for work purposes, especially office workers and teachers, followed by managers. Direct trains were instead mainly used for study purpose.
From the time of the inauguration of the HS/HC rail link between Rome and Naples in December 2005 there has been a significant increase of flows between the two metropolitan areas. Indeed data from Trenitalia have shown an average increase of total passenger flows around 40% between 2005 and 2007. Moreover this state can be considered transient since a further number of daily services will be introduced in the future and, above all, the travel time will significantly decrease (from 87 to 55 minutes) thanks to the completion of the service.
Moreover data from Autostrade and Trenitalia have highlighted that the use of car and of Intercity trains have almost remained unchanged during the few years of operation of the HS/HC service. It follows that the 40% rail increase above mentioned is mostly due to a generated demand. This means that the introduction of the HS/HC service between Rome and Naples has probably had impacts, as excepted, on both mobility choices (increase in trip frequency, new trips never done before, etc.) and location choices (people first living in the place of work now commute). An RP survey will be carried out for the understanding of these changes. Three different questionnaires have been prepared to be submitted to car users, Intercity train users and HS/HC train users. They all have in common questions concerning the socioeconomic characteristics of the users, questions related to the existence of possible time constraints for the trip undertaken and questions concerning previous travel choices.
Data gathered will be used first of all to understand this phenomenon and then to estimate both a gravity model to reproduce/forecast generated demand and a mode choice model to reproduce/forecast modal share. Specifically the choice between car and rail will be modelled through a diachronic approach and with a NL model with the ?train? utility function including late and early penalties.
These models will be applied to forecast scenarios including both an improvement in the number of supplied services and/or the travel time reduction which will occur after the completion.
Association for European Transport