Socioeconomic Impact Assessment of Sustainable Transport Policies



Socioeconomic Impact Assessment of Sustainable Transport Policies

Authors

Michael Krail, Fraunhofer-Institute For Systems And Innovation Research (ISI),

Description

The paper will show the main impacts of a selected number of transport policies that are in line with the strategies defined in the White Paper of the European Commission.

Abstract

Socioeconomic Impact Assessment of Sustainable Transport Policies

Michael Krail, Wolfgang Schade
Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany
Francesca Fermi, Davide Fiorello, Angelo Martino
Trasporti e Territorio (TRT), Milan, Italy

In 2011, the European Commission published its new transport strategy in the White Paper. It describes future goals and strategies to achieve a single European transport area in a sustainable manner. This transport system shall meet the society’s economic, social and environmental needs. Assessing social and economic implications of transport policies is crucial for an efficient design of a European transport policy. Most policy options have been assessed in the past towards their economic impacts but there is a lack of studies dealing with social impacts of transport policies. Social aspects of transport policy are gaining importance in Europe since some years. Policy-makers need to take the implications of transport policies on different social groups into account. On the one hand this is required due to equity reasons. On the other hand, the desired impact of a policy can only be achieved if the policy fits to the transport patterns and needs of different social groups. The paper will present an approach to quantify social and economic impacts of transport policies focussing on Europe and demonstrate the results for a selection of transport policies. The approach should help filling the gap in quantitative assessment of social impacts of transport policies. It has been developed in the context of the European FP7 co-funded research project ASSIST (Assessing the social and economic impacts of past and future sustainable transport policy in Europe).

The approach presented consists of two main steps. The first step consists in the development of a powerful tool for quantifying social and economic impacts of transport policies: the ASTRA-EC model. ASTRA-EC is an integrated transport, economic and environmental model based on System Dynamics methodology. It is a transport-focused version of the ASTRA model (ASTRA = Assessment of Transport Strategies). ASTRA-EC will further differentiate social groups according to age, income group and household type in order to simulate social impacts. The final step is the calibration and validation of the model by refining parameters determining the trends of major indicators to match them to historical time series data.

Social impacts of transport policies mainly occur on local level. Nevertheless, a macro-level model like ASTRA-EC can contribute to identify negative as well as positive impacts on a number of social groups differentiated by age and income. Furthermore, impacts on the EU labour markets can be simulated. The model is currently calibrated. First results are expected in spring 2013. The paper will show the main impacts of a selected number of transport policies that are in line with the strategies defined in the White Paper of the European Commission. The presented approach should provide policy advice such that the impacts on the social dimension can be balanced with the economic and environmental impacts.

Publisher

Association for European Transport