Danish Preferences Concerning Alternative-fuelled Vehicles
S Mabit, DTU Transport, DK
Based on a stated preference survey we develop a discrete choice model. Our model describes stated choices among traditional, electric, hydrogen, bio, and hybrid vehicles.
The increase in transport and energy consumption in Europe makes the transport sector the main contributor to the growth in green house gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, being almost completely dependent on oil products, the transport sector today is vulnerable to diminishing oil resources and rising oil prices. It is thus important to create a more sustainable transport system for reducing air pollution by diminishing GHG emission and changing energy demand patterns. Both bio-fuelled and hydrogen-fuelled cars are relevant options to consider in a new GHG emission policy for the transport sector.
The possible shift to alternative fuels depends on the market potential and obstacles to the introduction of alternative-fuelled vehicles (AFV). This in turn depends on the purchase price of AFV, the technical performance of these vehicles, the price of the alternative fuels, and distance to a fuel station.
Based on a large stated preference survey we develop a discrete choice model to capture Danish consumers? preferences toward alternative-fuelled vehicles. Our model is based on stated choices among traditional, electric, hydrogen, bio, and hybrid vehicles. The stated choices allow us to estimate consumer preferences for the four alternative vehicle types as well as for the attributes: price, annual cost, range, acceleration, and service. The survey includes 12 choices from more than 5000 respondents. An interesting aspect of our estimation is that the surveyed individuals all made a car purchase within 2007 and 2008. We investigate how this reference purchase affects preferences.
The experiment resembles prior studies from the U.S., the U.K., and Australia, see Brownstone et al. (2000), Hensher and Green (2001), and Batley et al. (2004). Together with these studies our estimation serves to strengthen the knowledge about how consumers perceive AFV. In addition, our modelling context differs from previous studies since Denmark has high car taxes and no car industry. We investigate how this affects preferences.
Batley, R., Toner, J., and Knight, M. (2004) A mixed logit model of U.K. household demand for alternative-fuel vehicles, International Journal of Transport Economics, 31(1), pp. 55-77.
Brownstone, D., Bunch, D., and Train, K. (2000) Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuelled vehicles, Transportation Research B, 34(5), pp. 315-338.
Hensher, D. and Greene, W (2001) Choosing between conventional, electric and LPG/CNG vehicles in single-vehicle households, Travel Behaviour Research, The Leading Edge, Pergamon Press, Australia, chapter 42, pp. 725-749. Edited by D. Hensher.
Association for European Transport