CAReFUL - Car Fleet Renewal As a Key Role for Atmospheric Emission Reduction
F Moura, J Manuel Viegas, Instituto Superior Técnico ? UTL, NL; A Duarte, Delft University of Technology, NL
The main goal of CAReFUL is to develop a model for transport and environmental policy assessment.The proposed model aims to simulate the effects of policies on the technological upgrade of car fleet through the diffusion of more efficient vehicles.
By the mid and late 70s, the environmental issues came to the forefront of transport activity, largely through the item of acidifying substances and ozone precursors. Since then, an interesting process has been going with successive discovery of new types of environmental aggressions and associated risks, followed by technological responses and their introduction and diffusion in the market.
Climate change and air quality in urban areas are major environmental burdens that implied severe restrictive and challenging EU policies to the transport sector, and more specifically to the car industry through the EURO regulation and voluntary agreements for CO2 reduction. As a prime contributor to atmospheric emissions, much attention is paid to car?s technological aspects (mainly emissions and energy consumption). Although problems aren?t solved, the situation is improving in general, and in many respects the question of accelerating fleet renewal and technology deployment is now dominant. It is commonly accepted that technology can solve road transportation environmental problems, but there is no precise knowledge on when and how this might happen.
The main goal of this project is to develop a model for transport and environmental policy assessment. Among other issues, the model aims to simulate the effects of policies on the technological upgrade of car fleet, especially through the diffusion of more efficient vehicles. The theoretical ground of the present proposal is based on modeling research of car stock evolution, car ownership, and energy and air emission factors. Practical motivations refer to the approval by the Portuguese government of the National Program for Climate Change (PNAC) in 2006, where a critical diagnosis is drawn for the next years of the national greenhouse gas emissions. Together with deteriorating air quality in urban areas, Portugal might well embrace an international non-compliance situation with respect to the Kyoto protocol and other EU commitments, if trend line emissions are not curbed.
The present research proposal brings a model (CAReFUL) that integrates methodologies for the estimation of the evolution of car fleet (CARFLEE), emissions (CAREM) and energy consumption (CAREN) by cars.
The CARFLEE model was calibrated based on national statistical data series for the Portuguese car fleet and on a survey covering approximately 3700 households. Based on the consequent stated preferences database, a state of the art Random Utility Model is integrated in the CARFLEE sub model in order to analyze different transport policies that may induce behaviors on the acquisition of new vehicles and on the deployment of cleaner technologies. The CARFLEE sub-model also includes an estimate of vehicle?s survival and mileage curves for the main E.U. Euro standards. Together with the estimation of private cars mobility patterns, based on the survey results, a reasonable simulation of the national car fleet evolution is proposed.
The impact of the fleet?s technological turnover on national emissions and energy consumption are analyzed with the integration of CAREM and CAREN.
Major contributions are the expected results of the case-study applied to the Portuguese situation. For example, we present an analysis of the required technological turnover to comply with Portuguese political commitment by 2020 (Compliance Scenario) and compare it with the Baseline Scenario in order to evaluate the transport and environmental policy requirements to correct current unsustainable trends.
Association for European Transport