Developing a Car Income Model for Poland



Developing a Car Income Model for Poland

Authors

TADAYON M and DUNTON C, TecnEcon, UK

Description

In September 1994, TecnEcon Consultants IrK together with Kocks Consultants of Germany and Transprojekt Warszawa of Poland were commissioned by PHARE to study 600 kilometres of proposed A2 motorway across Poland from its border with Germany to Belams.

Abstract

In September 1994, TecnEcon Consultants IrK together with Kocks Consultants of Germany and Transprojekt Warszawa of Poland were commissioned by PHARE to study 600 kilometres of proposed A2 motorway across Poland from its border with Germany to Belams.

Little information is available about the likely level of car ownership growth that can be expected in the former eastern block countries Their socioeconomic characteristics are changing rapidly and the centrally planned economies are transforming to market oriented economies.

To forecast the car ownership levels for Poland, desk top research, experience of other countries, trend and time series analysis were used.

This paper describes the methods adopted for forecasting car ownership levels and cross examines the results of different approaches.

Publisher

Association for European Transport