Passenger and Freight Transport in Flanders 2010-2040 Under Three Scenarios
G de Jong, Significance, NL/ITS University of Leeds, UK/CTS Stockholm, SE/NEA, NL; J Baak, K Ruijs, Significance, NL; T Bellemans, D Janssens, G Wets, Universiteit Hasselt, BE
The evolution of passenger and freight transport in Flanders up to 2040 is predicted using transport models that have been calibrated to Flanders in the same project. Three scenarios have been developed and simulated.
Passenger and freight transport in Flanders 2010-2040 under three scenarios
Gerard de Jong, Jaap Baak and Kim Ruijs - Significance
Tom Bellemans, Davy Janssens and Geert Wets - IMOB, Universiteit Hasselt
The Flanders Region in Belgium is preparing a new transport masterplan (?Mobiliteitsplan Vlaanderen?). One of the inputs will come from a new scenario analysis, in which three scenarios for the period up to 2040 have been developed:
Scenario 1: Standstill
Scenario 2: Work it out together (?Yes, we can?)
Scenario 3: Individuals in the queue
The first scenario focuses on economic stagnation (GDP grows by 1% per year), the second on economic growth (2% per year), coupled with government intervention, international coordination and technological change and the third on relatively high economic growth (3% per year), technological change, free trade and laissez faire.
The three scenarios have been developed in consultation with stakeholders (citizens, firms, public sector) and experts, that came together at various workshops. Besides assumptions on economic growth, the scenarios also contain consistent sets of assumptions on employment, trade flows, sectoral developments, demography (e.g. greying of the population), attitudes and behaviour (e.g. teleworking), spatial distributions (e.g. urban sprawl), availability and price of energy and technological developments (e.g. in intelligent transport systems, vehicles and logistics).
These scenarios have been used as input in three different transport models, to estimate the likely evolution of mobility and transport under each scenario. The three models are:
? For passenger transport by car, public transport and non-motorised modes: an application of the disaggregate Dutch National Model System (LMS) calibrated to Flanders
? For passenger transport by airplane: a new elasticity-based air transport model for Flanders
? For freight transport: an application of the aggregate-disaggregate-aggregate (ADA) model, originally developed for Norway and Sweden (?Logistics Module?, see de Jong and Ben-Akiva, 2007) calibrated to Flanders.
The LMS application uses a zoning system with 2386 zones in the study area (Flanders and Brussels), whereas the ADA model uses 309 zones in this area. The LMS and the ADA model were calibrated by adding constants to match observed mode and/or distance band shares. This model transfer method is similar to the way the national passenger model results are transferred to various regions in The Netherlands. Models for Flanders that would fully be based on local data (e.g. all coefficients estimated on the Flanders mobility survey 2007-2008) would lead to more appropriate traffic models, and this is recommended for detailed traffic studies, such as cost-benefit analyses of specific transport projects. However, the above model transfer is a cost-efficient method to obtain a strategic model, that is sensitive to a large number of input variables, and that can be used for scenario-analysis.
Both in the calibration and the application these models use attributes of zones and networks in the study area (e.g. employment by sector, population characteristics, travel time and cost by travel mode). The passenger car and lorry flows are assigned to the road network together.
Model simulations have been carried out for the base year (2010), 2020, 2030 and 2040. The outputs consist of forecasts of the number of tours and passenger kilometres by mode and travel purpose, tonnes, tonne-kilometres, vehicles and vehicle-kilometres by mode and commodity class, modal split, road network flows and congestion.
Besides these ten scenario runs, the models have also been used in sensitivity analyses. This includes both the sensitivity of the model outcomes to changes in model coefficients (such as time and cost coefficients), as well as sensitivity to changes in the future value of input variables (such as car ownership, trade growth and income).
The paper will describe the development of the three scenarios, the specific scenario inputs, the models used in the analysis, the calibration of these models to Flanders, the mobility and transport outcomes for the scenarios and the results of the sensitivity analyses.
Jong, G.C. de and M.E. Ben-Akiva (2007) A micro-simulation model of shipment size and transport chain choice, Special issue on freight transport of Transportation Research B, 41, pp. 950-965, 2007.
Association for European Transport