Traffic Forecasts for the Oresund Fixed Link
TERZIS G and COPLEY G, The MVA Consultancy, UK, PEDERSEN K S, COWI Consult, Denmark, BATES J, John Bates Services, UK and SCHEELE S, Inregia, Sweden
The cities of Copenhagen and Malmo, in Denmark and Sweden respectively, are separated by the 0resund, which connects the Baltic to the North Sea. The Swedish and Danish governments are in the process of constructing a sixteen kilometer fixed link (part tu
The cities of Copenhagen and Malmo, in Denmark and Sweden respectively, are separated by the 0resund, which connects the Baltic to the North Sea. The Swedish and Danish governments are in the process of constructing a sixteen kilometer fixed link (part tunnel, part bridge) to provide a new alternative to existing ferry services. There are seven ferry services crossing the immediate straits and a further thirty ferry services serving longer distance movements. In combination with the Great Belt crossing the new fixed link will allow direct movements between Scandinavia and mainland Europe.
The study is to provide a land use and traffic forecasting model capable of exploring the effects of different pricing strategies, land use and variations in exogenous variables. Particular attention is paid to the interaction between traffic and land use, to the estimation of induced traffic and the integration of local cross-border economies.
The traffic forecasts include all passenger and freight movements with the potential to cross the 0resund, including movements between Scandinavia and the rest of Europe. Special attention is given to the adjacent regions in Denmark and Sweden The long distance forecasts, in addition to car and train movements, also include air travel.
The project involves a significant data collection exercise in the area covering both summer and winter periods, using both revealed preference origin destination and stated preference surveys, for passenger and freight movements. These will form the database for modelling, calibration and forecasting.
The final product will be a computerised model to be operated by the client to test the effects of different scenarios. Whilst based on existing software, it has been customised to suit the requirements of the client, in particular the need to link database, spreadsheet and graphics input and output in a windows environment.
Association for European Transport