Expect the Unexpected: Qualitative and Quantitative Tools and Models to Detect Unintended Effects of Transport Policy Measures
A Justen, A Hoeltl, DLR, DE; T Fleischer, J Schippl, KIT, EDU, DE
Our paper starts by defining ?tools? for the identification of effects within the transport system and beyond (environmental, economic and social effects). It provides a taxonomy of foresight tools, covering quantitative modelling approaches as well as qualitative methods (for example, transport models, economic models, multi-criteria models, scenarios, participative approaches). The focus of the analysis is on the capabilities of different tools to identify in advance and evaluate policy measures that may produce unintended effects.
The different tools will be categorised by their general approaches (e.g. qualitative, quantitative). Further, the assessment of the tools will be made with respect to: (1) overall structure and functionality; (2) aspects in terms of time, spatial and socio-economic horizons addressed; (3) data requirements; (4) transparency and application; and (5) potentials for transferability. An important issue is the trade-off between the scope of input the ?tools? need to define potential unintended effects and the accuracy and clearness of the approach. It will be crucial to look at the flexibility of system delimitations. Regarding the quantitative tools a specific focus is on the European transport and policy assessment models TRANSTOOLS and TREMOVE and their capability to cope with unintended effects and combinations of policy measures.
Association for European Transport