Policy Driven Demand for Sales of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Battery-electric Vehicles in Germany
S Trommer, A Kihm, P Hebes, M Mehlin, DLR, DE
The paper analyzes the possible German car market?s development towards electric mobility demonstrating the impact of several policy approaches considering technical, social and economic constraints.
Climate change, resource scarcity and air pollution are widely recognized challenges to modern societies. A reason for these challenges is the intensive use of internal combustion engines in passenger and commercial vehicles for individual mobility. Hence, vehicle manufacturers and policy makers strive to shift towards electric propulsion for some time now. While technology issues are increasingly overcoming, the economic viability of electric vehicles is remaining constrained by higher prices than for conventional vehicles.
However, first automakers present their Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) or at least pronounce them for the near future. Hence, there is an emerging need for vehicle manufacturers, practitioners and policy to estimate the particular demand for partly and fully electrified drive trains under the current and probable future economic and regulatory conditions.
In our paper we analyze the possible German car market?s development towards electric mobility for the two key technologies, PHEV and BEV. Whereas recent research mostly concentrates on private transport this paper will broaden the view and includes light commercial vehicles (LCV) and commercially registered passenger cars (with mixed private/business usage or business usage only). Therefore two German transport surveys are employed, i.e. ?Mobiliät in Deutschland? 2008 (MiD) for the private passenger cars and ?Kraftfahrzeugverkehr in Deutschland? 2002 (KiD) for the commercial vehicles (LCV and company cars). A multi-step methodology using technical, social and economic constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory is developed to derive demand for electric vehicles between 2015 and 2030. The aim was to develop a methodology which allows calculating different scenarios regarding different policy actions, and the prices of fuels and electricity. Since changes in the policy framework can significantly influence demand, a base scenario consisting of the current German legislation was calculated as a reference magnitude. Based on this scenario the paper considers several policy approaches to demonstrate their impact on the respective market sectors? demand for electric drive trains in Germany.
The results can provide valuable insights for policy design as well as for transport and environmental modelling at the same time. Our model is able to integrate possible policies and can aid to design them.
Preliminary calculations show that the sales potential for electric drive trains in Germany is not only restricted by infrastructural and technical constraints but also by the economic conditions for the prospective customers. The results for the base scenario clearly show a growing potential for market diffusion for both PHEV and BEV until 2030. Nevertheless additional policy measures are needed to reduce the actual economic drawbacks of electric vehicles. These measures may consider the important differences between private and company cars to promote electric mobility equally towards all actors. The model results show intensive changes in the economic potential especially for three scenarios: A bonus paid on electric vehicles can accelerate market entry of such vehicles in general, a redesigned corporate car tax would encourage employees to choose more fuel-efficient vehicles, and a scenario without V2G revenues depicts a very strong market cut particularly for BEVs. Furthermore from the scenario analysis the PHEV and BEV markets turned out to interact strongly with each other. Hence, policy measures targeting only one market will have certain influence on the other one as well. Policies to drive electric vehicles to the market may consider these results to design optimally combined solutions of inciting with bonuses, new taxing approaches and ensuring V2G payments.
Association for European Transport