Policy Pathways for a 75% Reduction in CO2 Emissions in France by 2050
H Lopez-Ruiz, Y Crozet, LET-ISH, FR
This paper, presents a sensitivity analysis of different public policies and a quantification of the economic impact and investment needs for the French 2050 scenarios seeking a 75% reduction in GHG emissions.
In 2008, three long term scenarios where built by LET-ENERDATA. The said scenarios depicted what the French government?s objective of dividing greenhouse gas emissions by four, from the 1990 level, by 2050 meant in terms of technology and organizational needs. This paper, presents a sensitivity analysis of different public policies and a quantification of the economic impact and investment needs for the French 2050 scenarios (built in 2008 by LET-ENERDATA) seeking a 75% reduction in GHG emissions. In this manner, inspired by the works of HICKMAN & BANISTER (2007) and the VIBAT project (2006), the results present a clear and coherent set of policy pathways that are linked to their economic and financial entailing.
In order to build the LET-ENERDATA scenarios, we put in place a long-term backcasting transport demand model (TILT, Transport Issues in the Long Term). This model is centered on defined behavior types -in which the speed/GDP elasticity plays a key role- in order to determine demand estimations. Presently, this model has been enriched to also be able to asses the system?s sensitivity to public policies and the investment needs in infrastructure and the economic impact of different public policies whilst taking into account microeconomic choices.
Using TILT, policy pathways are quantitatively assessed by using the model?s structure which is based on systemic relationships that have been formalized within five fundamental modules:
? A macroeconomic module based on a re-foundation of the energy-environment modeling structures in order to properly assess long-term modifications of demographics
? A microeconomic module based on a discrete choice and demand evolution that takes into account transport cost, infrastructure capacity and quality of service.
? A vehicle fleet dynamic and technology evolution module that analyses technological impact based on market penetration probabilities and vehicles? survival rates for different motor technologies.
? A public policy module that joins a sensitivity analysis and multicriteria analysis in order to offer a detailed assessment of the effects of different measures on CO2 emissions
? An impact assessment module based on an input-output equilibrium analysis that details impacts on employment and production by sector
The main results are a clear view of what choices the public decider has in matter of public policy. Each scenario represents a clear and coherent set of policy pathways that are linked to the economic and infrastructural needs that are inherent to each option. Accordingly, each scenario will detail information concerning:
- Policy pathways and their ?mechanism of action? on behavior and the economy
- A GHG emissions estimation for the transport sector taking into account changes in technical progress, transport demand and public policy.
- An assessment of investment needs linked to the infrastructural changes envisaged in each scenario.
- An estimation of the economic impact inherent to the different options at hand.
Association for European Transport