Policies to Decarbonise Transport in Europe: 80 by 50
H Dalkmann, K Sakamoto, A Binsted and K Avery, Transport Research Laboratory, UK
This paper outlines a pathway for the European transport sector to reduce its GHG emissions by 80% compared to 2000 levels. It is based on a backcasting exercise that formulates a set of scenarios with different visions of society in 2050.
The transport sector is a major and increasing source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Europe and elsewhere. Transport emissions across the European Economic Area (EEA) have risen more than 20% over the period between 1990 and 2006, contrasting heavily with a reduction of 3% in emissions across other sectors.
To ensure that climate change is kept to a manageable and adaptable 2 degree rise in global average temperature, it is increasingly being recognised that developed countries must reduce their emissions by approximately 80 to 95% by 2050 (EEA, 2008).
This paper outlines a pathway for the European transport sector to contribute to such efforts, by reducing its emissions by 80% compared to 2000 levels. It based on several studies that TRL has conducted in the past year, including a backcasting modelling exercise that formulates a set of scenarios ? each with a different vision of the European society in 2050, which would be compatible with deep cuts in transport emissions.
The paper demonstrates how an optimal mixture of a range of policies can support mitigation actions by 1) avoiding unnecessary trips/trip lengths, 2) shifting to more carbon efficient modes, and 3) improving the carbon efficiency of all transport modes. It will highlight how both technological and behavioural change must be encouraged, for adequate emission reduction to be achieved.
The paper also interprets the empirical findings in the context of the ongoing climate change negotiations, and sheds light on how Europe can take a lead on mitigation actions in the transport sector and transfer such efforts to other parts of the world.
Association for European Transport