Developing Low Carbon Policies for Road Transport in Poland
R Kok, ECORYS Nederland BV and Delft University of Technology, NL; A Rahman, ECORYS Nederland BV, NL
This paper shows an analytic approach for developing low carbon policies for the road transport sector in Poland.
Poland is one of the new EU Member States that has undertaken significant economic and social reforms during the ?90s. After its accession to the European Union in 2004, and having implemented the necessary legislative and regulatory changes, it has witnessed rapid GDP growth. For the transport sector, this has led to a dramatic increase in the import of second-hand cars from Western Europe, higher motorisation rates, large investments in road infrastructure (motorways), and a growth in the vehicle kilometres and freight ton kilometres driven. Poland has agreed to a GHG emission targets for non-ETS sectors (this includes transport) which allow 14% growth by 2020 using 2005 emissions as the reference. The CO2 mitigation policies include both ?soft? and ?hard? measures like road pricing and taxes or vehicle and fuel technologies. The study, on which this paper is based, focuses on real world tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions from passenger and freight transport by road until 2030.
The approach is based on a systems approach which identifies a system boundary, the road transport sector in Poland, and exogenous forces and outcomes-of-interest. The exogenous forces can either be 1) external developments that cannot be directly influenced by the Polish policy makers such as population growth, GDP growth or EU vehicle CO2 emissions regulation or 2) individual policies and policy scenarios that could be implemented by the National or local government. The outcome-of-interest in this systems analysis are direct CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the road transport sector. Starting point of the bottom-up activity based modelling was the baseline scenario of the EU transport and environmental model TREMOVE (v2.9-2009) for Poland which was critically reviewed. In order to arrive at an updated and improved Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the projected development of the transport activity, vehicle stock by type, engine technology, fuel use and emissions factors, and the fleet renewal have been analysed by using various sources such as forecasts, vehicles sales and car imports data, economic assumptions and interviews with stakeholders in several Polish governmental organisations. The policy measures are selected on the full range of stringency of measures from legislative/regulatory to market-based and educational/informative. Other selection criteria were the abatement potential, marginal abatement cost and barriers for implementation. Three policy scenarios are developed comprising 1) a set of cautionary non-technological measures, 2) a set of proactive non-technological measures and 3) a technology scenario including the market penetration of alternative vehicle technologies such as hybrid and electric vehicles.
The results show the demand for passenger and freight transport based on GDP, population, motorisation and availability of road infrastructure. Next to that emissions factors are estimated based on the vehicle fleet development and renewal in terms of new car sales, second-hand car imports, scrappage rates, age of the fleet, fuel use and carbon content. Emission trajectories are presented by using the combination of transport activity by mode and the corresponding emission factors for the total road transport sector in Poland as well as for the individual vehicle classes being passenger cars, low duty trucks, medium duty trucks and high duty trucks. In addition, the impacts of the individual policies and policy scenarios are presented in terms of CO2 reduction as compared to the BAU scenario. Finally, the results are compared with existing emission trajectories from alternative sources or models being the country?s official GHG emissions inventory, TREMOVE and PRIMES.
The results as presented show a more worrying BAU scenario than previously established for the road transport sector in Poland. Even the combination of a proactive non-technological policy scenario and a technology scenario would still leave Poland at substantially higher GHG emissions than the growth of 14% by 2020. The paper concludes with a further discussion of the selection process, type and scalability of policies for developing low carbon policies for the transport sector.
Association for European Transport