Restricted Oil Supply in the Transport Sector and Economic Growth
M Chen, NEA. NL; R Koppelaar, ASPO, NL
Oil supply scenarios and climate change policies are input to a model on the energy use in the transport sector considering implementation of alternatives are and efficiency measures. This is translated to a potential for economic growth.
It is foreseen that in the coming years after the recession and when the economy starts growing again there will be friction between demand and supply of oil. The transport sector is the main user of oil and is at this moment for about 97% dependent on oil products and consumes in the EU 56% of all oil. In the transport sector the major part of the oil products is consumed by road transport (73.9%) followed by aviation (14.9%). Alternatives are being brought into the market (mainly for road transport) but this is currently only possible at a slow pace since the development of the alternatives is still ongoing and no clear transition strategy is available yet. Furthermore the benefits of the alternatives for most of the indi-vidual users are not clear.
In principle measures to prevent energy or oil shortage are only implemented for other pur-poses. Climate change policy is prevailing and policy makers only recently started to pick up oil shortage as a separate issue requiring explicit attention. Required measures for these two issues are overlapping but not always the same.
This paper analyses whether the measures taken to reduce climate change are also suffi-cient to overcome a potential oil shortage. A model is developed to determine an oil supply scenario based on figures of the IEA combined with up to date information on investments on 600 new oil wells. These scenarios serve as input to another model focussing on the en-ergy use in the transport sector and the maximum possible transport performance (tonkm and passkm). Here policy scenarios are used where the implementation of alternatives are considered and efficiency measures. This transport performance gives an indication on the potential for economic growth or decline since there is a strong correlation between the growth of economy and the growth of transport performance. Finally the report presents a set of recommendations based on the findings.
This study is a cooperation between NEA Transport research and training and Association Peak Oil Netherlands (ASPO-NL). ASPO-NL has studied the oil market aspects and has de-termined the oil scenarios with a new oil supply model developed in this project. NEA has focussed on the transport related aspects and has developed a dedicated model focussing on oil supply restriction and the possibilities of transition to alternatives and additional effi-ciency in the transport field within the time frame determined by oil production capacity in the coming years. With this approach we show which policies are needed to allow freight transport to facilitate movement of traded commodities. In this way an indication is ob-tained on the potential for growth of the economy.
Association for European Transport