Preliminary Study on the Hungarian Section of the 5th Pan-European Corridor
C Kelen, G Fehér, Kozlkeledes Ltd, HU
A corridor study of the Hungarian section of the 5th Pan-European corridor is was prepared to aid decision making about the optimal route.
Hungarian national land use zoning regulations (OTrT) were revised in 2008. One element of the revisions was to allow for new or modified high speed rail alignment along the 5th Pan-European corridor. Közlekedés Ltd. was retained to prepare a corridor study covering the territory from Venice to Budapest, including a travel demand model and forecasts.
Three corridor alignment scenarios were considered, taking into account spatial constrains of built-in land and natural preserves in Hungary. One branch line toward Southern Hungary was also assumed in each scenario. The corridor between Hungary and Italy followed a single alignment. Decreased corridor travel time from 14 to less than 5 hours, improved service frequency, and high quality rolling stock were envisioned. Current travel along the corridor is dominated by private vehicle due to the recent opening of motorway sections in Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia.
A complex travel demand model was built to estimate future trips along the high speed rail corridor. Travel demand model included three components: current trip table calibration and validation, mode choice module and assignment module. Forecast methodology considered base travel demand growth, and mode shift from air and road transport newly generated trips due to high speed rail service.
Forecast results showed significant future increase in rail travel between Italy and Hungary, as well as domestic travel within Hungary, creating new trips as well as significant shift from air and road trips. Railway volumes doubled, and in sections close to Budapest, almost tripled due to improved service conditions. Decision on the actual alignment, nevertheless, is likely to be determined on political and environmental grounds.
Association for European Transport