The 2nd Kenza Law of Demand: a New Qualitative and Quantitative Approach for Assessing Long-term Developments of the Demand for Leisure Destinations
D Sallier, Aéroports de Paris, FR
2 non-econometric Kenza laws of demand have been used by Airbus in the 90s and, today, by Aéroports de Paris. The 2nd Kenza law of demand delivers qualitative and quantitative appraisal of long term dynamics of the demand for leisure destinations.
In this contribution, I introduce a set of two non-econometric but very closely related methods for demand modelling and forecasting. These methods are called the Kenza laws of demand. The 1st law is dedicated to the modelling of generic and hardly substitutable perishable goods or services, such as the worldwide set of foreign destinations of the British leisure market, for instance, while the 2nd law is to be used for more specific perishable goods or services, such as the set of Tunisian destinations of the French or German leisure markets. The 1st and 2nd Kenza law of demand have been initially used by Airbus Industrie in the late 90s and the 1st law represents, today, the primary demand short, medium and (very) long term forecasting tool of Aéroports de Paris (CDG & Orly).
Tourism represents a major component of many countries economy in the world, some European ones included: local airlines and hotels developments and profitability, real estate, local employment, hard currency reserves, etc... may significantly depend on tourism. It means that airlines, airports, hotel groups, State and local administrations, if not the financial community, do have very strong methodological requirements which can deliver fully supported qualitative and quantitative understanding of the long term developments of the touristic demand. One of the main anticipated assets of the 2nd Kenza law of demand is to provide a better assessment and understanding of the different stages of any leisure market: from the times of being a fancy destination for very rich people to the times of being a very popular destination; from the times of a lucrative niche market to the times of huge volumes but low (unit) profits.
To start with the empirical concepts leading to the 1st and 2nd Kenza laws of demand will be exposed and discussed. Then exclusive attention will be paid to the 2nd Kenza law of demand and more specifically to the demand elasticity properties and to the life cycle characteristics of any leisure market. To finish with the Tunisian leisure market for a set of European countries will be used as an illustration of this new approach.
Association for European Transport