Development of a Highway Model for the Istanbul Metropolitan Area
P Brocklebank, A Obregon, Leigh Fisher, UK; S Rutherford, Jacobs Consultancy, UK
This paper describes the construction of a large-scale highway model of the Istanbul metropolitan area. Innovative methods were used to complete the model within the tight timescales imposed by a public-private partnership procurement process.
Istanbul, the capital of Turkey, is a city of 13 million people, divided by the Bosporus into European and Asian parts. The rapid demographic and economic growth of the city have generated an urgent need for transportation capacity. This is particularly the case for travel across the Bosporus.
The two highway bridges currently carry an average 400,000 vehicles each day and will reach capacity within the next five years. In view of this, a number of projects are planned to increase capacity across the waterway, including the Marmaray heavy rail tunnel and a third Bosporus bridge. A highway tunnel is also planned and is being procured through a public-private partnership.
This paper describes the development of a large-scale highway model of the Istanbul metropolitan area. This model has been used to produce traffic and revenue forecasts for the planned tunnel, on behalf of the Preferred Bidder for the PPP project. In addition to the particular problems imposed by the highly-saturated highway network and congested bridge crossings of the existing highway network, the model had to be developed within very limited timescales in order to meet the requirements of the procurement process. Innovative methods were adopted in order to achieve this. This paper describes the forecasting problem, and the data and modelling methods adopted to meet the challenges of this major highway project.
Association for European Transport