Medium to Long Term Land Use Impacts of Road Congestion Pricing in an Integral City Region: a Case Study of London and Its Commuting Hinterland
Y Jin, A Hagen-Zanker, University of Cambridge, UK
We develop a generic approach to studying the land use impacts of congestion pricing in the city region and illustrate its application through a study of London and surrounding regions to 2050.
Land use impacts of road pricing are an under-studied topic. There are good reasons for this: limited public acceptability implies that most road pricing schemes are small relative to the size of the city and they may have few land use impacts overall; the impacts of road pricing are inherently unpredictable, and an incremental policy response over time may appear more attractive than worrying about the effects decades ahead. Whilst both reasons remain valid for small schemes, there are valid concerns over long term impacts of city-wide implementation of road pricing ? that is, so long as city-wide pricing is retained as a potential demand management tool in built-up areas where there is rising congestion and few prospects for road capacity expansion.
Do land use effects have a strong influence on the long term effectiveness of road pricing? Understanding this now is important in cities where land use regulations are slow to take effect. We develop a generic approach and illustrate its application through a study of London to 2050.
We use an extended land use and transport model for the London region which forecasts residential and business location and estimates endogenously charges by road link in the city-region based on marginal social cost pricing. Its theoretical framework incorporates impacts of transport costs upon business location, home location, commuting and other travel. In the model tests, businesses and residents relocate in response to changes in accessibility and development scenarios; in turn, the endogenously generated road charges respond to different patterns of location. The tests show that the different urban land use change trajectories that arise could either enhance or negate the initial travel time savings and reliability benefits of pricing. This has significant implications for both public transport infrastructure planning and land use regulation, particularly in the inner suburbs where the congestion pricing impacts are likely to be the highest and the land use and infrastructure legacy require the longest to adapt in order to reap the benefits.
Association for European Transport