Testing the Costs on CO2 Impacts of the European Passenger Aviation Market and the Effects of Policy Changes Using an EU Transport Model
M Al-Azzawi, URS/Scott Wilson, UK
This paper evaluates CO2 policy options on the passenger aviation market across EU states using an International Transport Model (I-TRAM). Monetised costs of CO2 emissions are estimated up to 2030 and the effects of various policies are examined
In recent years, there has been a boom in the growth of passenger travel by air transport throughout the EU member states. Some data sources cite this growth as being significantly above the global average while others say it is in keeping with other continents in the world. Irrespective of the arguments, there is an undeniable fact that this unprecedented growth in air passenger travel has led to an increase in CO2 emissions and associated impacts caused. A focus for EU policy makers could therefore be to reduce the impacts from passenger aviation travel, especially targeting CO2 emissions.
This paper presents the evaluation of CO2 policy options on the aviation market across the EU member states using an EU-wide transport model. The monetised costs of CO2 emissions are estimated up to 2030 and the effects of various policies are examined.
URS/Scott Wilson, one of the Europe?s leading transport consultants, has developed an International Transport Database and Analysis Model (I-TRAM) which is a state-of-the-art multi-modal planning tool and source of data for transportation systems covering 42 countries including the EU member states. I-TRAM contains extensive data on trips and associated networks for both passengers and freight, for all main modes including air, road, rail and sea. It is therefore ideal for developing plans, examining transport markets and assessing opportunities for transport services, infrastructure, policy/strategy and individual projects.
When modelling Future Year forecasts, the model includes Reference Case data on demographic, economic and land-use changes at individual zone levels which allows it to forecast future trips and take into account the effects of changes to the network. Forecasts can be provided up to 2030 for different planning, economic, transport and land-use scenarios.
I-TRAM was used in a recent study to examine the monetised costs of CO2 emissions from the aviation industry in the EU. The outputs from the model allowed the research to quantify the global magnitude of CO2 emissions from the passenger aviation sector across the EU. Tests on various policies which are aimed at mitigating the CO2 effects of air travel were then carried out. These tests looked at various policies / scenarios which are aimed at mitigating the CO2 effects of air travel.
A Base Case was defined in order to produce projections, annually, to 2030 to consider changes in time. The model was used to examine the impacts of a number of specific policy/supply-side scenarios. Some of the scenarios considered relate to different assumptions concerning fares/pricing policy, network capacity constraints, economic growth, etc.
In particular, the following tests were examined and will be presented in this paper:
? No change to existing prices and capacity ? this is Business As Usual (BAU) or Do Minimum (DM)
? Infrastructure / capacity upgrades ? this provides unlimited capacity to the network and hence is unrestrained demand growth
? 100% of existing fares/charges applied as a Green Tax ? this is intended to reflect the potential impacts of increased financial stringency which would require the aviation industry to cover a significantly greater proportion of its total social costs and to raise fare prices upwards in situations where capacity bottlenecks may remain but investment in extra capacity is not as forthcoming
Given the current downturn in economic conditions being faced by many countries across major parts of the EU, the above tests were examined under two growth scenarios of future changes in population, employment, economic and other key parameters influencing the demand for travel. These represent Low and High Growth, and provide added insight into the changes over time.
The results from the extensive modelling will be presented in a series of easy-to-read tables and charts, and also outputs from the I-TRAM?s own geographical information system (GIS) which presents key issues across different areas of the EU.
The paper will then end by summarising the main lessons learned from this research including the implications for aviation policy and environmental considerations.
Hopefully, this work will be of interest and use to other transport planners, environmental legislators, policy makers and aviation modellers.
Association for European Transport