The Effect of Travel Time Variability on Airport Accessibility and Market Share
E Kroes, Significance and VU University Amsterdam, NL; P Koster, VU University Amsterdam, NL; M Kouwenhoven, Significance, NL
This paper analyses the effect of reliability of car access travel time on air passenger decisions (choice of departure time, access mode and departure airport).
This paper analyses the effect of reliability of car access travel time on air passenger decisions, including departure time choice, access mode choice and ultimately departure airport choice. The method proceeds in three steps.
Firstly, the generalized costs of passenger access to airports are calculated including the costs of travel time, but also the costs of scheduling and of missing a flight. Other monetary expenses and the costs of parking are also included. In these calculations we explicitly model the buffer time that passengers build in to counter the risk of being late due to variations in travel time as a function of traffic congestion. This is done using reduced form representations of the models presented by Koster et al. 2010.
Secondly, we simulate how different levels of traffic congestion lead to different travel times and risks of delay for all links inside the road network. These simulations are based upon an analysis of observed variations in car travel times (within and between days) for roads leading to the airport. This analysis enables us to develop reasonably accurate predictions of both mean travel times and variations in travel times for road sections under different levels of congestion. This is based upon work reported by Peer et al. 2010.
Thirdly, the impact of possible road infrastructure improvements on air passenger decisions is analyzed. We simulate how increases in road capacity for existing bottlenecks affect the means and the variances of access travel times, and hence the access costs. These are then used as input for an existing airport simulation model (Kouwenhoven et al. 2006) which predicts how the market shares of competing access modes are affected, and ultimately even the choice of departure airport. An illustrative case study will be elaborated for air passenger access to Schiphol airport near Amsterdam.
The emphasis in this paper is on presenting and illustrating a practical method to include the impact of reliability on air passenger choices, illustrating the importance of short and reliable access travel times to airports, particularly during the morning peak hours.
- Koster, Paul, Kroes, Eric and Verhoef, Erik T. (2010), Travel Time Variability and Airport Accessibility. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2010-061/3. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1629091
- Peer, Stephanie, Koopmans, Carl and Verhoef , Erik (2010), Predicting Travel Time Variability for Cost-Benefit Analysis. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2010-071/3.
- Kouwenhoven, Marco, Kroes, Eric and Veldhuis, Jan (2006), Welfare effects of capacity constraints at Schiphol airport:a new model to forecast air demand. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference, Strasbourg, France.
Association for European Transport