Appraising the Likely Redevelopment and Intensification of Land Uses: the Role of Land Use and Transportation Models
A Dobson, D Simmonds, P Minta, D Pisa, David Simmonds Consultancy, UK
This paper describes the inclusion of the modelling of re-development, showing how this may influence land use/ activity patterns and how transport interventions can be the catalyst for further redevelopment and intensification of use.
The redevelopment of vacant and under-used land and buildings can impact upon the location of residents, jobs and other trip attractions, leading to increases in travel, traffic and congestion within towns and cities. Much of this development is unlikely to be identified (or quantified) in Local Plan documents but rather is likely to come forward in response to a combination of economic demand and poor rates of return from existing uses.
Previously we have described this process as part of an overview of how planning policy is represented within land use and transport modelling . In this paper we develop the concept and describe how it has been introduced within the modelling of land use change within the DELTA land use model and applied in integrated Land Use and Transportation Model applications.
Through examples we show firstly how introducing the modelling of redevelopment and intensification of an existing land-use can provide a different pattern of land use (and the activity using that land use), secondly we describe how the introduction of a transport intervention can be the catalyst for redevelopment and intensification, resulting in additional activity within the area of influence of the transport intervention and also, as a secondary impact, resulting in redevelopment away from the transport scheme.
We would argue that this approach has two benefits. Firstly it better reflects the changing land use pattern within urban areas, as such it does not rely on a future "scenario" that is based solely upon the allocations of the local plan. Secondly by allowing greater scope for the future land use pattern to respond to transport interventions it is reflecting the manner in which land use policy may respond to a changing context, with additional development permitted in areas of demand.
In concluding we make recommendations on the future application of this approach both as an input for transport modelling but also in terms of appraisal of transport schemes.
1. "Representing planning policy in land-use and land-use/transportation modelling", Dobson et al , ETC 2010 proceedings.
Association for European Transport