Low Carbon Transport Scenarios to 2041: Lessons from Auckland

Low Carbon Transport Scenarios to 2041: Lessons from Auckland


K Goddard, C Seaborn, Halcrow Group, UK; T Austin, University of Auckland, NZ


This paper develops future transport scenarios for Auckland, a highly motorised city. A simulation framework is used to discuss investment priorities addressing how governments can deliver strategies which perform against competing indicators.


The transport sector is proving to be the most difficult sector in terms of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and responding to the climate change agenda (Banister, 2005; Hickman et al., 2010). This represents a major difficulty for governments and practitioners worldwide: how do we better respond to climate change aspirations within transport?

Alongside there are aspirations to develop policy and implementation strategies which progress against a wide range of, often competing, sustainable mobility indicators, including economic, social and local environmental dimensions. Transport is often viewed as the "maker and breaker" of cities, and needs to be developed in view of wider sustainable city aspirations. This paper considers these issues by developing future transport scenarios for a very car dependent city - Auckland, New Zealand, with the highest motorisation rate in the world (720 vehicles per 1000 people). It considers what policy options are available in such a context and draws lessons for car dependent cities in the UK and Europe.

The paper reports on research carried out in Auckland by the Halcrow Group; University of Oxford, Transport Studies Unit; and University of Auckland. Different packages of measures are selected for Auckland and scenarios developed which optimise low carbon and wider sustainability aspirations, including low emission vehicles, urban planning, and heavy investment in public transport, walking and cycling. Scenarios are conceived against important trends and uncertainties within the country, including the "Black Swans" ¬ potential events with high uncertainty and high impact. Likely impacts are considered against a multi-criteria appraisal (MCA) framework. A simulation framework or "game" is also used to examine and discuss priorities for investment and intervention against MCA impacts.


Association for European Transport