Evolving the Transportation Planning Process by Incorporating Climate Change Parameters
A Papanikolaou, G Aifantopoulou, Hellenic Institute of Transport, GR
The paper justifies the reasons that climate change considerations should be integrated in the planning process of transport using a holistic approach, emphasizing in the multimodal character of the transport system.
The planning concept in the transport sector has changed radically over the last three decades, from a separate, mode specific planning approach to a strategic, multimodal network planning approach. Furthermore, more recently, planning has significantly transformed for incorporating additional sustainability considerations and objectives. The notion of 'climate change adaptation' is an achievement of policy as it introduces a new philosophy on matters regarding infrastructure protection as well as transport planning and management. The necessity for incorporating climate change considerations in the transport sector has widely pointed out and the discussion on policies which will lead to this objective are set forth in a European basis.
The current work emphasizes on the need of adapting transport infrastructure as a response to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Moreover the necessity to understand and consider the transport system as a whole, in order to achieve more efficiently and in a consistent way performance objectives and other policy choices, is also underlined. The overall objective of the paper is to propose a consistent, integrated framework for incorporating climate change considerations into the strategic transport planning process.
The work initiates with placing emphasis on the difficulty in introducing long term effects into the planning process since they contain a certain degree of uncertainty. Two possible methodological approaches for tackling uncertainty are considered: 1) formulating strategies for different scenarios with the use of sensitivity analysis and 2) conducting appraisal together with risk analysis (incorporating uncertainty in the process). Both these approaches are thoroughly discussed and the steps for incorporating these considerations into the transportation planning process are described.
In the context of the analysis, four main parameters associated with adaptation and planning of the transport sector are also analyzed with great importance to the proposed framework: The time horizon of the analysis, the risk from weather predictions, the 'character' of the adaptation measures, as well as the multimodal context of planning.
In the end, the paper justifies the reasons that climate change considerations should be integrated in the planning process of transport using a holistic approach, emphasizing in the multimodal character of the transport system as well as in the incorporation of the external effects of transport.
Association for European Transport