How Do Traffic Demands and Reaction Behaviours Affect the Evacuation Planning?
Y-P Floetteroed, L Bieker, German Aerospace Center, DE
Disasters often occur without any foreseeing. Therefore the main challenge is to evacuate involved people and accommodate the needs of those people. The research result aims in supporting traffic managers to prepare an evacuation.
Natural and human-caused disasters often occur without any foreseeing. Therefore the main challenge is to evacuate involved people and accommodate the needs of those people efficiently and adequately. It is very challenging to evacuate people during mega events as well. Although such events can be well planed and organized in advance, tragedies could still occur due to unpredictable incidents and human reaction, such as the Love Parade tragedy in Duisburg, Germany in 2010.
Traffic demand is one of the essential input data and has a great influence on the quality of traffic prognoses, on the development of strategies and on the operation decisions during disaster and evacuation management. Different types of activities and disasters result in different amount of traffic demands and different demand patterns. A successful evacuation also depends on the given infrastructure of the traffic network. If the capacity of the streets is too low, bottlenecks occur, which causes dramatic delay in the evacuation process. For the police and traffic mangers it is important to provide people route guidance in case of an evacuation and how to manage the additional traffic flows.
In this paper, a demand-oriented approach for evacuation planning is proposed. It aims to automatically generate the respective traffic demand for a given disaster/event and estimate the populations needed to be evacuated. Based on the historical natural disasters, possible technological catastrophes and special events in Germany, three demand categories are taken into consideration. In addition to these special traffic demands, corresponding collection places and other relevant information, such as departure, arrival patterns and penetration rates, will also be taken in consideration. With the traffic simulation SUMO (Simulation of Urban MObility) respective scenarios will be simulated to help investigating the following critical issues: how long does an evacuation normally take? When should people start to leave and the corresponding consequence on evacuation time? How many people will be evacuated (after 1 hour, 2 hours?) with different penetration rates? These questions also depends on many different aspects like how critical is the situation and is the evacuation well organised etc. The research result aims in supporting traffic managers to prepare an evacuation.
Association for European Transport