Examining Impact Carbon Price Changes Under a Personalised Carbon Trading Scheme Fortransport
D McNamara, B Caulfield, Trinity College Dublin, IE
Personalised carbon trading schemes
In Ireland, the transport sector has become one of the major sources of green house gas
(GHG) emissions growth in recent years. In 2009 transport emissions accounted for 21.1% of Ireland's GHG's (EPA, 2010). This was a 176% increase on 1990 levels, second only to Cyprus amongst the 27 EU countries. Road transport emissions accounted for 97% of transport emissions. Evidently, significant reductions of road transport emissions, as part of overall GHG emissions is required in meeting Ireland?s Kyoto targets. A number of supplyside and demand-side policies have been advocated to reduce CO2 emissions. Research has mainly focused on fiscal measures such the carbon taxation. The research presented in this paper investigates the welfare effects of a Personal Carbon Trading Scheme (PCTS). A consumer surplus analysis is used to determine the welfare loss to individuals who undertake travel-to-work trips in the Dublin and the Western Border Region of Ireland. Three CO2 price scenarios are analysed: a low, medium and high carbon price. These results are compared at an aggregate level for each electoral division to existing measures of deprivation derived from the Census 2006 to determine if electoral wards designated as relatively deprived also incur the largest welfare losses. The results are also compared to density of population in each electoral division ED to investigate any link between density levels and welfare changes, particularly in rural regions.
The welfare model found a significant divergence in the changes in consumer surplus between both study regions. While welfare changes were minimal in the low price scenario, divergences occurred in the medium and high price scenarios as individuals using more sustainable modes in urban areas benefited from the higher market price. Large welfare losses were found in the WBR whilst most areas in Dublin were found to experience a welfare gain.
Association for European Transport