Games Family Demand Modelling for the London 2012 Olympic & Paralympic Games
I Bates, C Cuckson, N Brownbridge, A Thellmann, AECOM, UK
Any major sporting event requires the movement of a significant number of people. In addition to spectators and workforce, there is a core requirement to ensure the expedient transportation of athletes, dignitaries, media, and support/service staff.
1.1 Overview of the Games Family Demand Model
Any major sporting event requires the movement of a significant number of people. In addition to spectators and workforce, there is a core requirement to ensure the expedient transportation of the Games Family; a group which includes athletes, dignitaries, media, marketing partners, and support / service staff.
A key first step in the transportation planning process is to establish the Games Family demand in terms of vehicle fleet size and flows across the network during any given time period. This information is essential for detailed planning activities including:
-Games Family fleet forecasting (including bus operations);
-Determining the configuration and operational requirements of the Games Route Network (GRN); and
-Defining the size and operation of Vehicle Screening Areas, Transport Malls and Venue Parking / Load Zones.
Reflecting experiences from London2012, the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based Games Family Demand Model (GFDM), informed by a series of bespoke people and vehicle models using MS Excel VBA to define operational and behavioural logic by client group (making use of empirical data from previous Games), provides the common data platform to collate and integrate this data and to generate very valuable output data for Games planning. As part of the overview, the paper will expand on the composition and operational functionality of the GFDM.
1.2 Issues Encountered when Developing the GFDM
The paper will explore some of the issues encountered during this work, and in particular the design of bespoke Demand Modelling Software to generate movements over the Olympic Route Network (ORN) before, during and after the Games period. For example the added complexity associated with the five alternative ORNs in use during the main Games period. Furthermore, bespoke behaviour logic is required for each client group as they exhibit differing arrival profiles at events, attend non-competition events and may conduct sightseeing in their spare time.
1.3 Bespoke Transport Modelling for Dignitaries
The paper will look at the behavioural modelling of a specific group of dignitaries with behaviours which are particularly difficult to model due to the provision of a taxi like service during the Games period. Bespoke software has been developed to simulate the behaviour of this part of the wider Games Family vehicle fleet. The main demand model predicts anticipated demand for this client group whilst an additional module is used to analyse vehicular behaviours and predict client wait times at venues. This approach provides an innovative ?look-ahead? function to simulate fleet managers sending vehicles to pre-empt future demand. Another factor in modelling this part of the fleet is the use of staging areas to ensure that street capacity is not filled with waiting vehicles; therefore the software generates additional vehicular movements and wait behaviours at staging points.
1.4 Using the Outputs & Re-using the Software
The outputs from the Demand Modelling Software were used to inform user-friendly spreadsheet tools specifically developed to view link flow and turning count data for sections of the ORN. Software was also produced to enable the Games Family traffic demands to be fed directly into TfLs micro-simulation models of sections of the ORN. This was an efficient way to add these traffic flows, and allow them to be automatically updated with the flow data for different days of the Games.
The modular composition of the GFDM is such that the approach is transferable to other Games events, thereby offering development cost savings. This also applies to the output tools. The methodology is applicable to smaller events, and the bespoke client behaviour modules enable detailed modelling to suit specific project requirements.
Association for European Transport