Modelling the Demand of Leisure Traffic in the Province of Salzburg
M Haberl, Graz University of Technology, AT
The work has its goal to build up a basis for modelling the demand for leisure traffic.A specific demand model, based on pairs of activities, seems to be advantageous and is used for the construction of a traffic model especially for leisure purpose.
At an average of over 40 % of all ways, leisure traffic is the dominant part of all trip purposes and the amount is currently still increasing. At weekends and especially on Sundays and public holidays, the percentage is even higher. As leisure traffic can be classified as very spontaneous and the departure time depends on many different factors, it is more difficult to describe and predict than other trip purposes. Up to now leisure traffic has got only little attention in scientific work and mobility analysis in Austria and the rest of Europe, due to its variety.
CHOICE OF A DEMAND MODEL
The goal of this work is to create an appropriate basis for modelling the demand for leisure traffic. First of all, an intensive literature study was needed to analyse leisure traffic in all its facets and to be able to understand its characteristics. Furthermore, methodological principles of transportation planning models are discussed and tested for their possible adoption to model the demand of leisure traffic. As the Standard-4 Step model is not sufficient any longer, the models that operate simultaneously are generally considered to be favourable. Based on pairs of activities, the simultaneous procedures developed by Lohse 1970 (included in the Software VISEVA) seem to be specifically advantageous for traffic flows which are strongly induced by leisure traffic. Thus, in this research work the model by Lohse is used for construction of the traffic model as an exemplary application. Since the demand modelling using VISEVA allows a differentiated analysis of the different trip purposes the translocations are divided into source-target groups. Generally, VISEVA seeks a balance between transport supply and transport demand and has the possibility to consider different behaviours, by separating the people into homogeneous groups taking for example the age, the availability of motor vehicles and the type of employment into account.
EXEMPLARY APPLICATION OF THE METHODOLOGY
As an exemplary application Saturdays were chosen, because on that weekday leisure travel trips overlay with work-induced trips and the arrival and departure of tourists are mostly located on Saturdays too. The province of Salzburg is well known for its tourism causing traffic congestions especially on Saturdays. Therefore, this area seems to be ideal to serve as investigation area in this research work. It should be noted that the initial objective of this work - generating a Saturday model based on a model for workdays only - is regarded as extremely difficult.
DATA BASE, PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS
Another element of this work is the preparation and analysis of structural data, which is necessary for the exemplary application on a Saturday. Structural data indicate the amount and distribution of traffic-generating potential in the planning area and can be subdivided into spatial structure data and travel behaviour data. Since no survey for the study area, regarding the transport behaviour on Saturdays, was carried out, new methods are required to draw conclusions on the ability to obtain behavioural data. In this work the total trip generation of the motorized individual traffic for thirteen different source-target groups is calculated in order to identify the generation rates, considering that this procedure hasn?t been implemented in any research work or in literature up to now.Another calculation was needed in order to generate a proper potential for leisure trips in the province of Salzburg on Saturdays. As a result every traffic district contains a percentage value reflecting the attraction for leisure induced local changes.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The exemplary application of modelling the demand in leisure traffic and the achieved results represent the culmination of this work. The exemplary application shows that generating a Saturday model on the basis of a model for workdays only is regarded to be problematic, because a good data base is needed in order to be able to convert the spatial structure and travel behaviour data. Moreover, the improvement of the generation of the potential for leisure purpose should be an objective for prospective scientific works. Special surveys about leisure trips are also required to ensure proper models for leisure traffic in order to receive the knowledge about the travel behaviour on Saturdays or even Sundays too.
Association for European Transport